Climate Change Impacts and Mitigation in the Developing World: An Integrated Assessment of the Agriculture and Forestry Sectors

Valin, Hugo; Mosnier, Aline; Havlík, Petr; Schmid, Erwin; Obersteiner, Michael; Gusti, M.; Herrero, Mario; Forsell, Nicklas; Khabarov, Nikolay; Cantele, Matthew

doi:10.1596/1813-9450-7477

Cited by 39 publications

(32 citation statements)

References 62 publications

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“…They perceived that these exert considerable impacts on crop production in the study area. These results confirm the likelihood of the conclusion that climate change will likely have mostly negative effects on agriculture in developing countries such as Nigeria (Banik et al 2015;IPCC 2014;Havlík et al 2015;Mereu et al 2015). The major finding of this study is that majority of farmers received little support from the government; this puts farmers in a difficult situation and forces them to rely on savings and intervention from friends and family during crop failure.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 72%

Climate variability/change and attitude to adaptation technologies: a pilot study among selected rural farmers’ communities in Nigeria

2017

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Understanding climate variability and change is essential for designing adaptation policies and strategies to deal with the impacts of climate change on the agricultural sector. This Paper aims at assessing climate variability/change, the perception of rural farmers on climate change and preferred adaptation strategies among the farmers in some selected farming communities in Nigeria. The study thus used both meteorology data and social survey, to examine variability/change in climate and factors determining the adaptation techniques adopts by rural farmers. The results show a relatively uniform temperatures and some seasonal variations in recent years (diurnal range of temperature is about 10°C) but the rainfall shows much more seasonal variations. The rainfall has relatively undeviating trend from 1981 to 1996 but the trend appears to be upwards from the year 1997 to 2010. About 72.8% participants responded in the affirmative that climate is changing but there appears to be a significant relationship between the length of farming experiences and farmers' perceptions of climate change adaptation techniques. Water-related (about 53%) and nutrient related (about 52%) technologies appear to have a high preference among the farmers. The major driver that determines farmers' preference for climate change adaptation techniques is their incomes and experiences.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 72%

Climate variability/change and attitude to adaptation technologies: a pilot study among selected rural farmers’ communities in Nigeria

2017

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“…Furthermore, achieving the ambitious targets is conditional on the large-scale availability of negative emissions technologies, in particular carbon sequestration through afforestation and bioenergy systems connected to carbon capture and storage (BECCS), in the second half of the century (Clarke et al 2014, Anderson andPeters 2016). Without these technologies, even more modest stabilization would require substantially larger GHG emissions reductions in the medium term, further increasing the impacts of mitigation on the food system (Havlík et al 2015a). However, both afforestation and BECCS are very land use intense negative emissions technologies (Smith et al 2016) and therefore affect agriculture via the land markets.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Comparing impacts of climate change and mitigation on global agriculture by 2050

Meijl

Havlík

Lotze‐Campen

et al. 2018

Environ. Res. Lett.

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123

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Systematic model inter-comparison helps to narrow discrepancies in the analysis of the future impact of climate change on agricultural production. This paper presents a set of alternative scenarios by five global climate and agro-economic models. Covering integrated assessment (IMAGE), partial equilibrium (CAPRI, GLOBIOM, MAgPIE) and computable general equilibrium (MAGNET) models ensures a good coverage of biophysical and economic agricultural features. These models are harmonized with respect to basic model drivers, to assess the range of potential impacts of climate change on the agricultural sector by 2050. Moreover, they quantify the economic consequences of stringent global emission mitigation efforts, such as non-CO 2 emission taxes and land-based mitigation options, to stabilize global warming at 2 • C by the end of the century under different Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. A key contribution of the paper is a vis-à-vis comparison of climate change impacts relative to the impact of mitigation measures. In addition, our scenario design allows assessing the impact of the residual climate change on the mitigation challenge. From a global perspective, the impact of climate change on agricultural production by mid-century is negative but small. A larger negative effect on agricultural production, most pronounced for ruminant meat production, is observed when emission mitigation measures compliant with a 2 • C target are put in place. Our results indicate that a mitigation strategy that embeds residual climate change effects (RCP2.6) has a negative impact on global agricultural production relative to a no-mitigation strategy with stronger climate impacts (RCP6.0). However, this is partially due to the limited impact of the climate change scenarios by 2050. The magnitude of price changes is different amongst models due to methodological differences. Further research to achieve a better harmonization is needed, especially regarding endogenous food and feed demand, including substitution across individual commodities, and endogenous technological change.

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“…It is widely used for estimation of REDD mitigation potential (for example, contribution to the Eliasch Review (Eliasch 2008), quantification of the IPCC RCP 8.5 scenario (Riahi et al 2011), the World Bank assessment (Havlík et al 2015), quantification of the shared socio-economic pathways (SSP) (Fricko et al 2017), and development of the European Union ( EU) projections (Böttcher et al 2012;Capros et al 2013Capros et al , 2016Frank et al 2016;). …”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The sensitivity of the costs of reducing emissions from deforestation and degradation (REDD) to future socioeconomic drivers and its implications for mitigation policy design

Gusti

Forsell

Havlík

et al. 2018

Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Change

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Climate change mitigation policies for the land use, land use change, and forestry (LULUCF) sector are commonly assessed based on marginal abatement cost curves (MACC) derived from optimization models or engineering approaches. Yet, little is known about the space of validity of MACCs and how they are influenced by changes in main underlying drivers. In this study, we apply the Global Forest Model (G4M) to explore the sensitivity of MACCs to variation of socioeconomic drivers of deforestation, afforestation, and forest management activities. Particularly, three key factors are considered: (I) wood price, as an indicator of timber market developments; (II) agricultural land price, as a proxy representing the developments on agricultural markets; and (III) corruption coefficient, representing the progress in institutional development and measuring abatement costs use efficiency. The results indicate that the MACCs are more sensitive to the corruption coefficient than to agricultural land price and wood price. Furthermore, we find that the MACCs are more robust with high carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) price and that the sensitivity of the MACCs is higher at low CO 2 prices. In general, it can be concluded that when assessing medium-term mitigation policies characterized by low CO 2 prices, MACCs need to be developed in-line with institutions currently in place. When designing long-term mitigation policy characterized by high CO 2 prices, the role of the analyzed drivers in MACCs estimation is less important.Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Change

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Climate Change Impacts and Mitigation in the Developing World: An Integrated Assessment of the Agriculture and Forestry Sectors

Cited by 39 publications

References 62 publications

Climate variability/change and attitude to adaptation technologies: a pilot study among selected rural farmers’ communities in Nigeria

Climate variability/change and attitude to adaptation technologies: a pilot study among selected rural farmers’ communities in Nigeria

Comparing impacts of climate change and mitigation on global agriculture by 2050

The sensitivity of the costs of reducing emissions from deforestation and degradation (REDD) to future socioeconomic drivers and its implications for mitigation policy design

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