Climate change impact on West African rivers under an ensemble of CORDEX climate projections

Stanzel, Philipp; Kling, Harald; Bauer, Hannes

doi:10.1016/j.cliser.2018.05.003

Cited by 47 publications

(32 citation statements)

References 42 publications

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“…All of the changes impede on discharge. As results, decrease of about 6.58 m 3 /s is observed in projected discharge based on the RCP 4.5 scenario and an insignificant increasing trend for the projected discharge based on the RCP 8.5 at mid-century term as obtained by Essou et al [59] and Stanzel et al [5]. These results are also in line with that of Benin country profile, which addressed climate change impacts on hydro-climatic variables based on projections made till year 2085 [60].…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 53%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 96%

“…Model projections based on ensemble median show no substantial threat to future river discharge availability with changes in the range of ±5% for large parts of West Africa [5]. A 10% decrease is project in Nigeria and a 10% increase for most of Guinea, Sierra Leone, Liberia and Côte d'Ivoire [5]. Runoff decrease of more than 10% is projected for Senegal, Gambia and Guinea-Bissau, whereas a strong increase of over 10% is expected for the regions along the border of Liberia and Côte d'Ivoire [5].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 97%

“…A 10% decrease is project in Nigeria and a 10% increase for most of Guinea, Sierra Leone, Liberia and Côte d'Ivoire [5]. Runoff decrease of more than 10% is projected for Senegal, Gambia and Guinea-Bissau, whereas a strong increase of over 10% is expected for the regions along the border of Liberia and Côte d'Ivoire [5]. However, there is unclear change in Ouémé River discharge in Benin.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 98%

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Mid-Century Climate Change Impacts on Ouémé River Discharge at Bonou Outlet (Benin)

Lawin¹,

Houngue²,

M’Po³

et al. 2019

Hydrology

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This work focuses on impacts of climate change on Ouémé River discharge at Bonou outlet based on four global climate models (GCM) over Ouémé catchment from 1971 to 2050. Empirical quantile mapping method is used for bias correction of GCM. Furthermore, twenty-five rain gauges were selected among which are three synoptic stations. The semi-distributed model HEC-HMS (Hydrologic Modeling System from Hydrologic Engineering Center) is used to simulate runoff. As results, HEC-HMS showed ability to simulate runoff while taking into account land use and cover change. In fact, Kling–Gupta Efficiency (KGE) coefficient was 0.94 and 0.91 respectively in calibration and validation. Moreover, Ouémé River discharge is projected to decrease about 6.58 m3/s under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 4.5) while an insignificant increasing trend is found under RCP 8.5. Therefore, water resource management infrastructure, especially dam construction, has to be developed for water shortage prevention. In addition, it is essential to account for uncertainties when designing such sensitive infrastructure for flood management.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 53%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 96%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 97%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 98%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Mid-Century Climate Change Impacts on Ouémé River Discharge at Bonou Outlet (Benin)

Lawin¹,

Houngue²,

M’Po³

et al. 2019

Hydrology

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“…CP4A agrees with R25 on the sign of changes in western Sahel (SEN), which is getting drier, but not in central Sahel (SSZ), which is getting wetter. Some impact studies use monthly mean changes imposed on present‐day observed precipitation variability to assess climate change impacts on agriculture and hydrology (Roudier et al, ; Sultan et al, ; Stanzel et al, ). However, we have shown that intraseasonal rainfall variability may change more significantly with climate change than previously thought (Guan et al, ).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Larger Future Intensification of Rainfall in the West African Sahel in a Convection‐Permitting Model

Berthou

Kendon

Rowell

et al. 2019

Geophysical Research Letters

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Monsoon rainfall in West Africa mostly comes from mesoscale convective systems, which are not well represented by standard convection‐parameterized regional climate models (RCMs). We use a 4.5 km resolution convection‐permitting RCM (CP4A) which has a good representation of these processes in the Sahel. By comparing the climate change signals of CP4A and a standard RCM (R25), we find that changes in mean rainfall and wet‐day frequency are linearly related. However, rainfall intensity changes are independent. Intensification of rainfall is larger in CP4A and happens in regions of both increasing and decreasing mean rainfall. Rainfall from extreme events increases by a factor of 5 to 10 in CP4A, compared to 2 to 3 in R25. CP4A also shows larger changes in intraseasonal rainfall variability, dry spells, and short and long duration extreme rainfall than R25, all of which are relevant for hydrology and agriculture.

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Climate change and the hydropower sector: A global review

Wasti

Ray

et al. 2022

WIREs Climate Change

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Renewable sources of electricity, such as solar and wind, need to be paired with sources of reliable baseload. Hydropower is a renewable, low‐emission source of electricity baseload available throughout much of the world as an alternative to electricity conventionally provided by thermal combustion of fossil fuels; however, the global hydropower sector as it stands relies upon surface water flows of substantial and predictable volume. This makes it vulnerable to climate change. The impact of climate change on the hydropower sector is difficult to predict, and not globally uniform. It might be positive, negative, or inconsequential depending upon the local timing and magnitude of changes, reservoir size, allocation priority, and the energy market. The secondary effects of climate change on glacier lake outbursts floods, landslides, and sediment load are poorly understood. In addition, when planning hydropower projects for the future, attention must be given to the greenhouse gas contribution of the impounded waters behind storage dams, and the impact of dams on water temperature. In the past decade, sovereign nations and international development agencies worldwide have evaluated the potential of hydropower as a cost‐effective, clean, sustainable option for baseload electricity supply. There is therefore a crucial need to assess the opportunities and risks hydropower poses across a wide range of potential future climate conditions. This review paper conducts a global survey of the literature on the effect of climate change on hydropower and identifies room for improvement in current approaches to evaluation of the net benefits of hydropower projects under climate change. This article is categorized under: Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change > Learning from Cases and Analogies Assessing Impacts of Climate Change > Evaluating Future Impacts of Climate Change

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Climate change impact on West African rivers under an ensemble of CORDEX climate projections

Cited by 47 publications

References 42 publications

Mid-Century Climate Change Impacts on Ouémé River Discharge at Bonou Outlet (Benin)

Mid-Century Climate Change Impacts on Ouémé River Discharge at Bonou Outlet (Benin)

Larger Future Intensification of Rainfall in the West African Sahel in a Convection‐Permitting Model

Climate change and the hydropower sector: A global review

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