Climate Change Impact on the Habitat Suitability of Pseudotsuga menziesii Mirb. Franco in Mexico: An Approach for Its Conservation

Martínez-Sifuentes, Aldo Rafael; Hernández-Herrera, José Antonio; Valenzuela-Núñez, Luis Manuel; Briceño-Contreras, Edwin Amir; Manzanilla-Quiñones, Ulises; Gastélum-Arellánez, Argel; Trucíos-Caciano, Ramón; Calderón, Magali Jeaneth López

doi:10.3390/su14148888

Cited by 3 publications

(1 citation statement)

References 48 publications

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“…However, these kinds of studies are very limited in Mexico, and the few that have been developed are focused on conifers under their natural distribution [39,63], and which occur in natural protected areas [43,69]. To conserve candelilla populations in the primary harvest areas in Mexico, this study has identified areas that may represent ideal conditions for the subsistence of the species in the context of climate change.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Predicting Climate Change Impacts on Candelilla (Euphorbia antisyphilitica Zucc.) for Mexico: An Approach for Mexico’s Primary Harvest Area

Martínez-Sifuentes,

Estrada-Ávalos,

Trucíos-Caciano

et al. 2023

Sustainability

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Candelilla (Euphorbia antisyphilitica Zucc.) is a non-timber forest resource of ecological and economic importance in the arid zones of Mexico due to the commercialization of its wax for industrial purposes. The objectives of this study were (i) to delimit areas of current and projected future candelilla habitat suitability in Mexico and in the state of Coahuila, (ii) to determine the most important variables that define candelilla habitat, and (iii) to propose areas for candelilla conservation under climate change conditions in Coahuila. Records of candelilla presence, current and future bioclimatic layers from the MPIESM-LR and HadGEM2-ES models with two scenarios RCP 4.5 and 8.5, were used to create species distribution models with soil and topographical variables. MaxEnt software was used to project current habitat suitability zones under climate change. We estimated the current surface area of candelilla in Mexico to be 79,336.87 km2, and for Coahuila 25,620.75 km2. In Coahuila, using the MPIESM-LR model for 2050, the estimate was 20,177.67 km2 and 17,079.61 km2 for RCP scenarios 4.5 and 8.5; while for 2070, the estimate was 12,487.18 km2 and 9812.94 km2 for RCP scenarios 4.5 and 8.5. For the HadGEM2-ES model for 2050, the estimate was 20,066.40 km2 and 17,079.61 km2; for 2070 it was 17,156.02 km2 and 16,073.70 km2. As proposed areas for conservation of candelilla in the face of climate change, we estimated 5435.06 km2 and 3636.96 km2. The study area was located in the northwest and center of the state of Coahuila, near the natural protected areas of Ocampo and Bajo Rio San Juan, areas that are resilient to climate change. The results obtained provide information on the environmental and site conditions for the establishment of candelilla in Mexico, as well as the geographical areas, such as Sierra y Cañon de Jimulco, Tomás Garrido, 026 Bajo Río San Juan, Zapalinamé, Zapalinamé, and Cumbres de Monterrey Restoration Zones for the conservation of the species under local climate change scenarios. In addition, new areas in the northwest and center of Coahuila could be used to establish new protected areas for this economically important species.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Predicting Climate Change Impacts on Candelilla (Euphorbia antisyphilitica Zucc.) for Mexico: An Approach for Mexico’s Primary Harvest Area

Martínez-Sifuentes,

Estrada-Ávalos,

Trucíos-Caciano

et al. 2023

Sustainability

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Modeling potential distribution and above-ground biomass of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) forests in the Inner Anatolian Region, Türkiye

Bulut,

Aytaş

2023

Environ Monit Assess

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Habitat Suitability of Fig (Ficus carica L.) in Mexico under Current and Future Climates

et al. 2022

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Emerging or alternative crops are those that have been recently introduced in response to new demands and commercial opportunities. The fig has been introduced as an alternative fruit crop in Mexico due to its high nutritional, nutraceutical, and antioxidant capacity. A total of 644 points of presence were downloaded and filtered according to climatic ranges and agricultural areas, leaving 68 records. The MaxEnt algorithm was used to develop the habitat suitability models for current and future climate. The bioclimatic variables of the global circulation models, Hadley Centre Global Environment Model version 2-EarthSystem (HADGEM2-ES) and Max Planck Institute for Meteorology-Earth System Model Low Resolution (MPI-ESM-LR), were used under scenarios 2.6 and 8.5. The changes in the fig area for Mexico were analyzed based on the generated models. Under the current climate, 359,575.76 km2 were estimated for 2050, and a loss of area for the excellent category was estimated for both models and scenarios; however, for the MPI-ESM-LR model projected to 2070, an increase of 5.51% and 0.39% was estimated for scenarios 2.6 and 8.5, respectively. The effect of climate change on agronomic species such as figs will be expressed in variations in climatic ranges and areas suitable for their development. The results of this study reveal the negative and positive effects of climate change on fig habitat suitability in Mexico. The dynamics of changes in surface area will be reflected mainly in northern and central Mexico.

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Climate Change Impact on the Habitat Suitability of Pseudotsuga menziesii Mirb. Franco in Mexico: An Approach for Its Conservation

Cited by 3 publications

References 48 publications

Predicting Climate Change Impacts on Candelilla (Euphorbia antisyphilitica Zucc.) for Mexico: An Approach for Mexico’s Primary Harvest Area

Predicting Climate Change Impacts on Candelilla (Euphorbia antisyphilitica Zucc.) for Mexico: An Approach for Mexico’s Primary Harvest Area

Modeling potential distribution and above-ground biomass of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) forests in the Inner Anatolian Region, Türkiye

Habitat Suitability of Fig (Ficus carica L.) in Mexico under Current and Future Climates

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