Climate change impact on countrywide water balance in Bolivia

Escurra, Jorge; Vázquez, Víctor Pavón; Cestti, Rita E.; Nys, Erwin De; Srinivasan, Raghavan

doi:10.1007/s10113-013-0534-3

Cited by 24 publications

(22 citation statements)

References 18 publications

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“…For instance, modeling and analysis of future water scarcity in Andean regions affected by shrinking glaciers need to consider human variables to realistically simulate future paths of key drivers and relevant factors that determine water use, allocation and regulations (e.g. Caballero et al, 2004;Escurra et al, 2014;Nazemi and Wheater, 2015). In the framework of efforts by the IPCC, researchers in recent years have begun to develop a new scenario framework with a more comprehensive set of global and regional scenarios (Moss et al, 2010;Nakicenovic et al, 2014).…”

Section: Adaptation Challenges and Constraintsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Rapid decline of snow and ice in the tropical Andes – Impacts, uncertainties and challenges ahead

Vuille

Carey

Huggel

et al. 2018

Earth-Science Reviews

251

213

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Glaciers in the tropical Andes have been retreating for the past several decades, leading to a temporary increase in dry season water supply downstream. Projected future glacier shrinkage, however, will lead to a long-term reduction in dry season river discharge from glacierized catchments. This glacier retreat is closely related to the observed increase in high-elevation, surface air temperature in the region. Future projections using a simple freezing level height-equilibrium-line altitude scaling approach suggest that glaciers in the inner tropics, such as Antizana in Ecuador, may be most vulnerable to future warming while glaciers in the more arid outer tropics, such as Zongo in Bolivia, may persist, albeit in a smaller size, throughout the 21st century regardless of emission scenario. Nonetheless many uncertainties persist, most notably problems with accurate snowfall measurements in the glacier accumulation zone, uncertainties in establishing accurate thickness measurements on glaciers, unknown future changes associated with local-scale circulation and cloud cover affecting glacier energy balance, the role of aerosols and in particular black carbon deposition on Andean glaciers, and the role of groundwater and aquifers interacting with glacier meltwater.The reduction in water supply for export-oriented agriculture, mining, hydropower production and human consumption are the most commonly discussed concerns associated with glacier retreat, but many other aspects including glacial hazards, tourism and recreation, and ecosystem integrity are also affected by glacier retreat. Social and political problems surrounding water allocation for subsistence farming have led to conflicts due to lack of adequate water governance. Local water management practices in many regions reflect cultural belief systems, perceptions and spiritual values and glacier retreat in some places is seen as a threat to these local livelihoods.Comprehensive adaptation strategies, if they are to be successful, therefore need to consider science, policy, culture and practice, and involve local populations. Planning needs to be based not only on future scenarios derived from physically-based numerical models, but must also consider societal needs, economic agendas, political conflicts, socioeconomic inequality and cultural values. This review elaborates on the need for adaptation as well as the challenges and constraints many adaptation projects are faced with, and lays out future directions where opportunities exist to develop successful, culturally acceptable and sustainable adaptation strategies.

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Section: Adaptation Challenges and Constraintsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Rapid decline of snow and ice in the tropical Andes – Impacts, uncertainties and challenges ahead

Vuille

Carey

Huggel

et al. 2018

Earth-Science Reviews

251

213

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Water rationing was established for the first time ever in La Paz, affecting one-third of the population and probably more in fast-growing El Alto, the poorest city of Bolivia. The three main reservoirs that provide the city's water were almost dry by (Soruco et al 2015;Escurra et al 2014).…”

Section: (Ii) Precipitationmentioning

confidence: 99%

State of the Climate in 2016

Aaron-Morrison¹,

Ackerman²,

Adams³

et al. 2017

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society

152

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“…There are seven climate stations, such as Chopta Valley (at SB1), Thangu (at SB2), Muguthang (at SB3), Lachen (at SB4), Yumthang (at SB5), Lachung (at SB6), and Chungthang (at SB7), that were defined to project the local-scale changes associated with temperature and precipitation. Then, the gridded and measured precipitation and temperature data sets were adjusted at each SB (at different point locations) by calculating the TLR and precipitation lapse rate (PLR) (Singh and Goyal 2016a;Escurrat et al 2014;Gardner et al 2009). The TLR and PLR are calculated from CARTOSAT DEM, which was downloaded from BHUWAN portal.…”

Section: Spatial Interpolation and Climate Downscaling Of Hydrometeormentioning

confidence: 99%

Unsteady High Velocity Flood Flows and the Development of Rating Curves in a Himalayan Basin under Climate Change Scenarios

Singh

Goyal

2017

J. Hydrol. Eng.

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Hydrologic models are not able to compute unsteady flood flows, and the hydraulic models are sometimes found less effective in uncertainty estimation in the modeling outcomes. This study presents a coupled modeling framework to analyze the unsteady flows in the downstream of the Teesta and Lachung Rivers using hydrodynamic and hydrological models. The present approach leads to unsteady flow simulations along stream channel reach. Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model is used for the projection of streamflow, water depth, and precipitation at various gauged and ungauged locations over the selected catchment using Coupled Model Intercomparison Phase 5 (CMIP5) CM3 model data sets with their representative concentration pathway (RCP) experiments and observed hydrometeorological data. SWAT-based projected scenarios are incorporated in the hydrodynamic model for the projection of water level, flood discharge, and flooded area at different sections in the downstream of the Teesta and Lachung Rivers. Using projected flood flows and water-level data, the rating curve equations have been developed at the outlets such as Chungthang and Lachung. The study outcomes resulting from both models show a very good agreement between the simulated streamflow and observed streamflow at the outlet locations. The uncertainties can also be associated in the modeling outcomes. Thus, a statistical-cum-stochastic downscaling method has been applied to downscale the CMIP5 CM3 model-based meteorological variables (e.g., temperature and precipitation). The modeling errors prior to project streamflow have been adjusted using a sequential parameter fitting approach (SUFI2). The hydrodynamic model-based projected unsteady flood flows are found highly uncertain in the downstream portion of both rivers, and thus several extreme flood peaks have been observed in the final outcomes. The observations show that the water velocities have increased in the projected scenarios (recorded as 8.5 m=s), as compared to historical scenarios (6.5 m=s). Using projected time series discharge and water level (stage), the rating curve equations, which have been developed as per the low to extreme emission scenarios, can be used in the future planning and management of the water resources systems.

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Climate change impact on countrywide water balance in Bolivia

Cited by 24 publications

References 18 publications

Rapid decline of snow and ice in the tropical Andes – Impacts, uncertainties and challenges ahead

Rapid decline of snow and ice in the tropical Andes – Impacts, uncertainties and challenges ahead

State of the Climate in 2016

Unsteady High Velocity Flood Flows and the Development of Rating Curves in a Himalayan Basin under Climate Change Scenarios

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