Climate change impact on agricultural crops and adaptation options in Romania

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to assess the potential effects of climate change on development, grain yield, and water balance for the main agricultural crops at 5 typical sites located in one of the most vulnerable zones of Romania. In addition, the paper evaluates possible adaptation measures of crop management to future climate changes. The vulnerability assessments focused on winter wheat and maize crops due to the particular importance of these crops in the cultivated areas and the difference in the genetic type of these crops reflected in their distinct physiological responses to CO 2 concentration level (winter wheat is a C 3 crop, while maize is a C 4 crop). Outputs from 2 equilibrium 2 × CO 2 general circulation models were used to develop climate change scenarios. CERES simulation models, linked with a seasonal analysis program included in the dedicated software DSSAT v3.0, were run for 30 yr with baseline climate and climate change scenarios. The results of crop simulations under climate change scenarios indicated that winter wheat benefits from the interaction of double CO 2 concentrations and higher temperatures, while irrigated maize in southern Romania shows negative responses to climate change. The adverse impact of climate change on the maize crop can be lessened by using a longer maturing hybrid, sowing in the last week of April, applying a plant density of 5 plants m -2 , and increasing fertilization levels.

Projected Crop Production under Regional Climate Change Using Scenario Data and Modeling: Sensitivity to Chosen Sowing Date and Cultivar

“…The WUE was projected to increase slightly, mainly because the relative change of evapotranspiration was much lower than that of the projected yield. This result is similar to the findings of Cuculeanu [11] and Mo et al [43]. However, the WUE was projected to have an unstable tendency with a pronounced negative effect.…”

“…Several studies have recommended using later sowing dates or introducing resistant varieties for winter wheat production in warming climates [11,44,45]. However, these generalized adaptation options are not practical across the entire study region.…”

Sensitivity of winter wheat yields in the Midwestern United States to future changes in climate, climate variability, and CO2 fertilization

“…Results from Cuculeanu et al (1999) wheat simulation modeling, using CERES-Wheat, run under conditions of future climate change in southern Romania, indicated that winter wheat yields increased in response to both increased temperatures and doubled CO 2 concentrations. Although maturity dates occurred earlier and the growing season became shorter, yields increased 15 to 21% across 5 sites.…”

Irrigation Distribution Networks’ Vulnerability to Climate Change

“…At the present time, climate change impact on agriculture has become a recurrent issue and many studies have been done (Rosenzweig et al 1995;Cuculeanu et al 1999;Guereña et al 2001;Tubiello and Fischer 2007;Meza et al 2008), some of them related to impact on irrigation (Allen et al 1991;McCabe and Wolock 1992;Doll 2002;De Silva et al 2007;Fischer et al 2007;Rodríguez Díaz et al 2007a;Yano et al 2007). However, the effect on irrigation distribution networks has not been tackled.…”