Climate change impact on a wine‐producing region using a dynamical downscaling approach: Climate parameters, bioclimatic indices and extreme indices

Abstract

Climate change is of major relevance to wine production as most of the wine‐growing regions of the world are located within relatively narrow latitudinal bands with average growing‐season temperatures (GSTs) limited to 13–21°C. This study focuses on the incidence of climate variables and indices that are relevant both for climate change assessment and for grape production, with emphasis on grapevine bioclimatic indices and extreme events (e.g., cold waves, storms, heatwaves). Dynamical downscaling of European Reanalysis‐Interim and Max Planck Institute Earth System low‐resolution global simulations forced with a Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) greenhouse gas emission scenario was performed with the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model to a regional scale including the Douro Valley of Portugal for recent‐past (1986–2005) and future periods (2046–2065, 2081–2100). The number, duration and intensity of events were superimposed over critical phenological phases estimated by using a specific local grapevine varietal phenological model in order to assess their positive or negative implications for wine production in the region. An assessment of the relevance of climate parameters and indices and their progression in recent‐past and future climate scenarios with regard to the potential impact on wine production was performed. Results indicate a positive relation between higher growing‐season heat accumulations and greater vintage yields. A moderate incidence of very hot days (daily maximum temperature above 35°C) and drought from pre‐véraison phenological conditions have a positive association with vintage ratings. However, the mid‐ and long‐term WRF‐MPI RCP8.5 future climate scenarios reveal shifts to warmer and drier conditions, with the mean GST not remaining within range for quality wine production in the long‐term future climate scenario. These results indicate potential impacts that suggest a range of strategies to maintain wine production and quality in the region.

Future Climate Change Impacts on European Viticulture: A Review on Recent Scientific Advances

“…In effect, the expected warming may result in unbalanced wines, with high alcoholic content, excessively low acidity and altered colour and aroma [15,119]. Similarly, future climate scenarios which revealed shifts to warmer conditions for the same region were predicted to be prohibitive for quality wine production in the longterm, given that the mean temperature did not remain within the appropriate range for cultivation during the advanced growing season [120].…”

Climate resilience of European wine regions

“…and Bulgaria (e.g., Southern Black Sea coast). Previous studies already highlighted signi cant changes in growing suitability due to climate change expected in many of these regions 7,13,23,43 . Because the scope of the required adaptation measures often entails a partial or complete departure from traditional appellation regulations, early warning and awareness is critical to successful implementation and to providing the necessary support to prepare eventual amendments to production regulations.…”

Climate change impacts on phenology and ripening of cv. Touriga Nacional in the Dão wine region, Portugal

“…These models can be used as a crop management and decision support tool (Rodrigues et al ., 2021a). They can also be used to define disease control strategies (Molitor and Berkelmann‐Loehnertz, 2011; Caffarra et al ., 2012), to select the varieties better adapted to specific climate conditions (Parker et al ., 2013; Reis et al ., 2020) or to assess climate change impacts on grapevine development (Webb et al ., 2007; Caffarra and Eccel, 2011; Xu et al ., 2012; Cuccia et al ., 2014; Fraga et al ., 2016a; 2016b; Ramos, 2017; Blanco‐Ward et al ., 2019; Costa et al ., 2019; Ramos and Martínez de Toda, 2020).…”

“…Several studies have been conducted in recent years, using different models combined with climate change scenarios, to assess future changes in grapevine phenological timings (Webb et al ., 2007; Caffarra and Eccel, 2011; Xu et al ., 2012; Cuccia et al ., 2014; Fraga et al ., 2016a; 2016b; Ramos, 2017; Blanco‐Ward et al ., 2019; Costa et al ., 2019; Ramos and Martínez de Toda, 2020; Reis et al ., 2021). All of these studies showed that the main phenological stages (budbreak, flowering, veraison) and harvest would advance in the future, but with a more pronounced advancement foreseen for veraison and harvest than for the earlier stages.…”