Climate change impact of wind energy availability in the Eastern Mediterranean using the regional climate model PRECIS

Bloom, A. Anthony; Kotroni, Vassiliki; Lagouvardos, Konstantinos

doi:10.5194/nhess-8-1249-2008

Cited by 65 publications

(30 citation statements)

References 15 publications

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“…The lowest mean speeds occur in the north Aegean Sea. In summer, one of the most constant local wind systems blows over the Aegean Sea, the Etesian winds [30,31]. There is a definite contrast between mean wind speeds in the central and south Aegean Sea and those in the rest of the study region, with the former reaching much higher values.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 92%

Climatic Study of the Marine Surface Wind Field over the Greek Seas with the Use of a High Resolution RCM Focusing on Extreme Winds

Vagenas

Αnagnostopoulou

Τολίκα

2017

Climate

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Abstract:The marine surface wind field (10 m) over the Greek seas is analyzed in this study using The RegCM. The model's spatial resolution is dynamically downscaled to 10 km × 10 km, in order to simulate more efficiently the complex coastlines and the numerous islands of Greece. Wind data for the 1980-2000 and 2080-2100 periods are produced and evaluated against real observational data from 15 island and coastal meteorological stations in order to assess the model's ability to reproduce the main characteristics of the surface wind fields. RegCM model shows a higher simulating skill to project seasonal wind speeds and direction during summer and the lowest simulating skill in the cold period of the year. Extreme wind speed thresholds were estimated using percentiles indices and three Peak Over Threshold (POT) techniques. The mean threshold values of the three POT methods are used to examine the inter-annual distribution of extreme winds in the study region. The highest thresholds were observed in three poles; the northeast, the southeast, and the southwest of Aegean Sea. Future changes in extreme speeds show a general increase in the Aegean Sea, while lower thresholds are expected in the Ionian Sea. Return levels for periods of 20, 50, 100, and 200 years are estimated.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 92%

Climatic Study of the Marine Surface Wind Field over the Greek Seas with the Use of a High Resolution RCM Focusing on Extreme Winds

Vagenas

Αnagnostopoulou

Τολίκα

2017

Climate

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“…6d). Bloom et al (2008) associated the growth in WED in the Aegean with etesian winds that occur in this region during summer. The northwarddirected etesian winds result from a combination of a thermally induced low pressure system over Turkey and high pressure over the Baltic.…”

Section: Linkages To Alterations In Large-scale Pressure and Circulatmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Pryor et al (2006) assumed no substantial changes in the level of year-to-year variability using the model HadCM3, whereas Pryor et al (2012a) found a slight decline in interannual variability in northern Europe. Bloom et al (2008) analyzed WED changes in the Mediterranean region using the regional climate model (RCM) PRECIS driven by HadCM3 (see Table 1 for a list of climate models). They found a decrease of mean WED, except for the Aegean, where an increase is projected.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Regional Changes in Wind Energy Potential over Europe Using Regional Climate Model Ensemble Projections

Hueging¹,

Haas²,

Born³

et al. 2013

Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology

124

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The impact of climate change on wind power generation potentials over Europe is investigated by considering ensemble projections from two regional climate models (RCMs) driven by a global climate model (GCM). Wind energy density and its interannual variability are estimated based on hourly near-surface wind speeds. Additionally, the possible impact of climatic changes on the energy output of a sample 2.5-MW turbine is discussed. GCM-driven RCM simulations capture the behavior and variability of current wind energy indices, even though some differences exist when compared with reanalysis-driven RCM simulations. Toward the end of the twenty-first century, projections show significant changes of energy density on annual average across Europe that are substantially stronger in seasonal terms. The emergence time of these changes varies from region to region and season to season, but some long-term trends are already statistically significant in the middle of the twenty-first century. Over northern and central Europe, the wind energy potential is projected to increase, particularly in winter and autumn. In contrast, energy potential over southern Europe may experience a decrease in all seasons except for the Aegean Sea. Changes for wind energy output follow the same patterns but are of smaller magnitude. The GCM/RCM model chains project a significant intensification of both interannual and intra-annual variability of energy density over parts of western and central Europe, thus imposing new challenges to a reliable pan-European energy supply in future decades.

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“…Apart from the identification of the annual and seasonal structure of wind climate in an area, the assessment of the longer-term changes and relevant variability is also important in real-life situations, such as the optimal design of an offshore wind farm (OWF) and wind energy economics. Climate change issues can be also considered in an attempt to estimate the potential consequences of global warming to the current wind regimes (see Bloom et al, 2008;Pereira de Lucena et al, 2010;Koletsis et al, 2016).…”

Section: Spatial and Temporal Scales In Wind Climate Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

Offshore wind climate analysis and variability in the Mediterranean Sea

Soukissian

Karathanasi

Axaopoulos³

et al. 2017

Intl Journal of Climatology

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ABSTRACT:The long-term offshore wind characteristics in the Mediterranean Sea are assessed using the ERA-Interim dataset for the period 1979-2014. Three main aspects of the wind climate analysis are examined in detail; the spatio-temporal behaviour (including variability characteristics) of wind speed and direction for the annual and monthly time scale; the joint association of wind speed and direction for the annual and monthly time scale, and; the wind speed trends and wind direction changes. From this analysis, the systematic wind flow patterns are identified and the general features of the wind climatology patterns are revealed. The most typical examples of stable and intense regional winds are the Mistral (throughout the year) in the Gulf of Lion and the Etesians (during summer) in the Aegean Sea. High values of mean annual variability of wind speed occur over the western part of the basin (Balearic, Tyrrhenian and Ligurian sub-basins) as well as over the Adriatic and N Aegean Seas, and the E Levantine Basin. Moreover, the assessment of the joint association of wind speed and direction indicates that areas with high values of linear-circular correlation are the ones characterized by intense wind climate. As regards, long-term changes of wind speed and direction, the linear trend for the former and the angular distance for the latter variable are provided. The fastest increasing wind speed trends are observed in the Ionian, the N Tyrrhenian and N Adriatic Seas, the eastern part of the Algerian Basin up to Balearic Isl. and the western part of the S Levantine Basin while the fastest decreasing ones are observed offshore Monaco, the central Aegean and the E Alboran Seas and the N Levantine Basin. The highest values of angular variance and mean angular distances are depicted for the Ligurian, Balearic and Alboran Seas.

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Climate change impact of wind energy availability in the Eastern Mediterranean using the regional climate model PRECIS

Cited by 65 publications

References 15 publications

Climatic Study of the Marine Surface Wind Field over the Greek Seas with the Use of a High Resolution RCM Focusing on Extreme Winds

Climatic Study of the Marine Surface Wind Field over the Greek Seas with the Use of a High Resolution RCM Focusing on Extreme Winds

Regional Changes in Wind Energy Potential over Europe Using Regional Climate Model Ensemble Projections

Offshore wind climate analysis and variability in the Mediterranean Sea

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