Climate Change Impact Modelling Cascade – Benefits and Limitations for Conservation Management

Vohland, Katrin; Rannow, Sven; Stagl, Judith

doi:10.1007/978-94-007-7960-0_5

Cited by 5 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 41 publications

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“…In the last decades, the adoption of mechanistic models have become a popular tool for assessing the impacts of climate change on hydrologic and abiotic components of aquatic systems (Vohland et al, 2014). The majority of studies have analysed the impacts of climate change on single environmental aspects such as watershed hydrology and water availability (Leta et al, 2016;Amin et al, 2017;Trinh et al, 2017), loadings of nutrients (Huttunen et al, 2015) and sediments (Bussi et al 2016;Samaras & Koutitas 2014), and water quality (Wilby et al, 2006).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modelling climate change impacts on nutrients and primary production in coastal waters

Pesce

Critto

Torresan

et al. 2018

Science of The Total Environment

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modelling climate change impacts on nutrients and primary production in coastal waters

Pesce

Critto

Torresan

et al. 2018

Science of The Total Environment

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“…Additional climate change impacts might manifest themselves slowly over decades (Lillebø, 2015) making the management of freshwater and transitional waters a challenge for policymakers, decision makers, and scientists. Hence, modelling becomes increasingly important for understanding and projecting climate change impacts, also for supporting the formulation of management measures (Vohland et al, 2014).…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Coupled hydrological and hydrodynamic modelling application for climate change impact assessment in the Nemunas River watershed–Curonian Lagoon–south-eastern Baltic Sea continuum

Idzelytė

Čerkasova

Mėžinė

et al. 2023

Preprint

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Abstract. We analyse the cumulative impacts of climate change in a complex basin-lagoon-sea system continuum, which covers the Nemunas River basin, Curonian Lagoon, and the south-eastern part of the Baltic Sea. A unique state-of-the-art coupled modelling system, consisting of hydrological and hydrodynamic models, has been developed and used for this purpose. Results of four regional downscaled models from the Rossby Centre high-resolution regional atmospheric climate model have been bias-corrected using in situ measurements, and were used as forcing to assess the changes that the continuum will undergo until the end of this century. Results show that the Curonian Lagoon will be subjected to higher river discharges that in turn increase the outgoing fluxes into the Baltic Sea. Through these higher fluxes, both the water residence time and saltwater intrusion event frequency will decrease. Most of these changes will be more pronounced in the northern part of the lagoon, which is more likely to be influenced by the variations in the Nemunas River discharge. The southern part of the lagoon will experience lesser changes. Water temperatures in the entire lagoon and the south-eastern Baltic Sea will steadily increase, and salinity values will decrease. However, the foreseen changes in physical characteristics are not of the scale suggesting significant shifts in the ecosystem functioning, but are expected to manifest in some quantitative alterations in the nutrient retention capacity. However, some ecosystem services such as ice fishing are expected to vanish completely due to the loss of ice cover.

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“…For example, the climate-change-induced increase in precipitation will result in increased nutrient leaching from agricultural soils, forests, and other land uses (Pihlainen et al, 2020), making it even more difficult to combat eutrophication -a prevalent and serious environmental problem in the Baltic Sea that affects both the coastal waters and the open sea (McCrackin et al, 2018;Vigouroux et al, 2021). Hence, modelling becomes increasingly important for understanding and projecting climate change impacts, in addition to supporting the formulation of management measures (Anthony et al, 2009;Vohland et al, 2014).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…One of the new key findings of the second climate change assessment (BACC II Author Team, 2015) was that, due to the large bias in the water balance projections, the projected changes in the Baltic Sea salinity remained uncertain; i.e. it is unclear if the Baltic Sea becomes more or less saline (von Storch et al, 2015). Nevertheless, climate change is consequently going to affect the marine ecosystem and may reduce its resilience.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Coupled hydrological and hydrodynamic modelling application for climate change impact assessment in the Nemunas river watershed–Curonian Lagoon–southeastern Baltic Sea continuum

et al. 2023

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Abstract. We analyse the cumulative impacts of climate change in a complex basin–lagoon–sea system continuum, which covers the Nemunas river basin, Curonian Lagoon, and the southeastern part of the Baltic Sea. A unique, state-of-the-art coupled modelling system was developed using hydrological and hydrodynamic models. The results of four regional downscaled models from the Rossby Centre high-resolution regional atmospheric climate model have been bias-corrected using in situ measurements and were used as forcing to assess the changes that the continuum will undergo until the end of this century. Results show that the Curonian Lagoon will be subjected to higher river discharges that in turn increase the outgoing fluxes into the Baltic Sea. Through these higher fluxes, both the water residence time and saltwater intrusion into the lagoon event frequency will decrease. Most of these changes will be more pronounced in the northern part of the lagoon, which is more likely to be influenced by the variations in the Nemunas river discharge. Its delta area may be susceptible to flooding as a result of the elevated discharge during winter. The southern part of the lagoon will experience lesser changes. While water temperatures in the entire lagoon and the southeastern Baltic Sea will steadily increase and salinity will decrease, the foreseen changes in the physical characteristics will not cause significant shifts in the ecosystem functioning but may affect the nutrient retention capacity. However, some ecosystem services such as ice fishing are expected to vanish completely due to the loss of ice cover.

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Climate Change Impact Modelling Cascade – Benefits and Limitations for Conservation Management

Cited by 5 publications

References 41 publications

Modelling climate change impacts on nutrients and primary production in coastal waters

Modelling climate change impacts on nutrients and primary production in coastal waters

Coupled hydrological and hydrodynamic modelling application for climate change impact assessment in the Nemunas River watershed–Curonian Lagoon–south-eastern Baltic Sea continuum

Coupled hydrological and hydrodynamic modelling application for climate change impact assessment in the Nemunas river watershed–Curonian Lagoon–southeastern Baltic Sea continuum

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