Climate Change Impact Assessment on Water Resources and Susceptible Zones Identification in the Asian Monsoon Region

Bae, Deg‐Hyo; Koike, Takao; Awan, Jehangir Ashraf; Lee, Moon‐Hwan; Sohn, Kyung-Hwan

doi:10.1007/s11269-015-1124-6

Cited by 24 publications

(12 citation statements)

References 27 publications

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“…To simulate hydrological responses under the 1.5 and 2.0 C global warming scenarios, we use the VIC model, which is a distributed hydrologic model that simulates land-atmosphere fluxes while conserving water and energy balances (Liang et al, 1994(Liang et al, , 1996. The VIC model is widely coupled to GCMs and has been applied to most of the major river basins around the world (Sheffield et al, 2009;Bae et al, 2015;Donnelly et al, 2017). In this study, the VIC model is set up with a spatial resolution of 0.5 (~50 km), and integration is performed at a daily time-step.…”

Section: Hydrological Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Intensified hydroclimatic regime in Korean basins under 1.5 and 2°C global warming

Kim

Bae

2019

Intl Journal of Climatology

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This study assesses the potential changes in regional hydroclimates over South Korea in response to 1.5 and 2.0°C of global warming above preindustrial levels based on multimodel ensemble projections forced by a representative concentration pathway (RCP4.5) scenario. The meteorological inputs, which are derived from five global climate models after removing systematic bias using quantile mapping, are fed into a distributed hydrological model, the variable infiltration capacity model, to estimate the hydrologic responses to different levels of greenhouse gas concentrations in future periods. The changes in seasonal mean precipitation differ between monsoon and intermonsoon seasons. An increase in summer precipitation and a decrease in winter precipitation commonly occur under 1.5 and 2.0°C of global warming, resulting in intensified precipitation seasonality. However, changes in spring and fall precipitation show opposite change signals or relatively little robustness (as measured by model agreement) in response to different degrees of warming. Spatial and seasonal changes in precipitation are directly transferred to runoff patterns, increasing the disparity between wet and dry seasons. Global warming also leads to changes in the distributions of daily precipitation and streamflow, and the projected changes systematically involve an increase in high‐intensity precipitation and a decrease in relatively low‐intensity precipitation. This behaviour tends to be amplified under 2.0°C in comparison to 1.5°C of global warming, with potential implications for increased water stress under a much warmer climate. More importantly, under 2.0°C of global warming, the magnitude of extremes such as the annual maximum day flow in Korean basins is likely to be enhanced. This study demonstrates that changes in precipitation characteristics can explicitly modulate runoff and subsequently streamflow patterns, suggesting positive benefits of half a degree less warming in terms of the frequency and intensity of extreme streamflow.

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Section: Hydrological Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Intensified hydroclimatic regime in Korean basins under 1.5 and 2°C global warming

Kim

Bae

2019

Intl Journal of Climatology

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“…Therefore, the VIC model is commonly coupled with a GCM not only at the continental scale, but also at the global scale (Sheffield et al, 2009; Lee and Bae, 2015). We establish the VIC model at a spatial resolution of 0.5 • (approximately 50 km) considering the study domain and run the model on a daily basis, as was suggested in Bae et al (2015).…”

Section: Hydrological Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Because runoff simulation results depend on the model parameters, it is important to calibrate and verify the hydrological model parameters to obtain a reliable runoff simulation (Bae et al, 2011). Some model parameters are estimated based on geophysical datasets and river networks for gauged basins, but the remaining parameters for ungauged basins are estimated indirectly by using the hydrological regionalization method (Parajka et al, 2013;Bae et al, 2015;Beck et al, 2016). We apply the hydrological regionalization method by transferring parameters obtained from gauged regions to ungauged regions based on the assumption that two basins with analogous climate features (e.g., based on the climate zone classification) exhibit similar hydrological responses.…”

Section: Hydrological Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Intensification characteristics of hydroclimatic extremes in the Asian monsoon region under 1.5 and 2.0 °C of global warming

Kim

Bae

2020

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. Understanding the influence of global warming on regional hydroclimatic extremes is challenging. To reduce the potential risk of extremes under future climate states, assessing the change in extreme climate events is important, especially in Asia, due to spatial variability of climate and its seasonal variability. Here, the changes in hydroclimatic extremes are assessed over the Asian monsoon region under global mean temperature warming targets of 1.5 and 2.0 ∘C above preindustrial levels based on representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5. Analyses of the subregions classified using regional climate characteristics are performed based on the multimodel ensemble mean (MME) of five bias-corrected global climate models (GCMs). For runoff extremes, the hydrologic responses to 1.5 and 2.0 ∘C global warming targets are simulated based on the variable infiltration capacity (VIC) model. Changes in temperature extremes show increasing warm extremes and decreasing cold extremes in all climate zones with strong robustness under global warming conditions. However, the hottest extreme temperatures occur more frequently in low-latitude regions with tropical climates. Changes in mean annual precipitation and mean annual runoff and low-runoff extremes represent the large spatial variations with weak robustness based on intermodel agreements. Global warming is expected to consistently intensify maximum extreme precipitation events (usually exceeding a 10 % increase in intensity under 2.0 ∘C of warming) in all climate zones. The precipitation change patterns directly contribute to the spatial extent and magnitude of the high-runoff extremes. Regardless of regional climate characteristics and RCPs, this behavior is expected to be enhanced under the 2.0 ∘C (compared with the 1.5 ∘C) warming scenario and increase the likelihood of flood risk (up to 10 %). More importantly, an extra 0.5 ∘C of global warming under two RCPs will amplify the change in hydroclimatic extremes on temperature, precipitation, and runoff with strong robustness, especially in cold (and polar) climate zones. The results of this study clearly show the consistent changes in regional hydroclimatic extremes related to temperature and high precipitation and suggest that hydroclimatic sensitivities can differ based on regional climate characteristics and type of extreme variables under warmer conditions over Asia.

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“…Zhou et al [12] assessed agricultural sustainable development and described processes and interactions in human-environmental systems of Jiangsu Province, China. Bae et al [13] applied the concept of sustainability in the DPSIR framework to select all appropriate indicators of climate change impacts and quantified spatial vulnerability for sustainable water resources management. However, the causality relationship of different factors influencing CLQ evolution and the quantitative degree of influence of each factor have not been assessed by the DPSIR framework.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Quantitative Evaluation and Path Analysis of Factors Influencing the Cultivated-Layer Quality of Red Soil Sloping Farmland Based on the DPSIR Framework

Jin¹,

Shi²,

Zhong³

et al. 2020

Pol. J. Environ. Stud.

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Quantitative evaluations of the cultivated-layer quality (CLQ)of sloping farmland are important for the effectively improving and rationally utilizing of the cultivated layers. Using a red soil watershed as the research object, we quantitatively analysed the relationship among factors influencing the CLQ using structural equation modeling based on the DPSIR framework (A framework for describing the interactions between society and environment developed by the European Environmental Agency) to describe the CLQ evolution process. We identified the key indicators of the driving factors (D) during cultivated-layer degradation and critical environmental pressure (P) to construct a reasonable cultivatedlayer (RCL) by principal component analysis (PCA). We defined the main CLQ diagnostic indicator set to assess the CLQ by factor analysis and analysed the reasonable measures to improve the CLQ. The results show quantified direct or reverse effects among D, P, state performance (S), problem impacts (I) and response strategy (R). The contribution rates of D and P were affected by the comprehensive effects of natural and human factors or human factors along. The CLQ diagnostic indicator set included 7 soil indicators and sub-soiling is the main adjusted measure for cultivated-layer recovery. These results could provide important technological paths for objectively understanding the causes drivers of the degradation and improving the CLQ for red soil sloping farmland.

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Climate Change Impact Assessment on Water Resources and Susceptible Zones Identification in the Asian Monsoon Region

Cited by 24 publications

References 27 publications

Intensified hydroclimatic regime in Korean basins under 1.5 and 2°C global warming

Intensified hydroclimatic regime in Korean basins under 1.5 and 2°C global warming

Intensification characteristics of hydroclimatic extremes in the Asian monsoon region under 1.5 and 2.0 °C of global warming

Quantitative Evaluation and Path Analysis of Factors Influencing the Cultivated-Layer Quality of Red Soil Sloping Farmland Based on the DPSIR Framework

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