Climate change hastens population extinctions

Abstract

Climate change is expected to alter the distribution and abundance of many species. Predictions of climate-induced population extinctions are supported by geographic range shifts that correspond to climatic warming, but few extinctions have been linked mechanistically to climate change. Here we show that extinctions of two populations of a checkerspot butterfly were hastened by increasing variability in precipitation, a phenomenon predicted by global climate models. We model checkerspot populations to show that changes in precipitation amplified population fluctuations, leading to rapid extinctions. As populations of checkerspots and other species become further isolated by habitat loss, climate change is likely to cause more extinctions, threatening both species diversity and critical ecosystem services. C limate change at global and regional scales is predicted to alter species distributions, life histories, community composition, and ecosystem function (1-5). In particular, population losses caused by climate change threaten both species diversity and the delivery of critical ecosystem services (6). Predictions of climate-induced population extinctions are supported by correlational evidence that numerous species are shifting their ranges in response to climatic warming (7-11). Nevertheless, few mechanistic studies have linked extinctions to recent climate change (12, 13). Furthermore, most climate change research and forecasts focus on shifts in climatic means. Global climate models also predict changes in climatic variability (14, 15), but biotic impacts of those increases have received less study. Here, we report that extinctions of two populations of the checkerspot butterfly, Euphydryas editha bayensis, were caused by a combination of habitat loss and regional climate change in the form of increasing variability in precipitation.The Bay checkerspot butterfly, Euphydryas editha bayensis, is a univoltine butterfly inhabiting patches of native grassland in the San Francisco Bay Area in California. The subspecies was listed as threatened under the United States Federal Endangered Species Act in 1987. Populations at the Jasper Ridge Biological Preserve, Stanford University (San Mateo County, CA) have been studied since 1960 (16, 17) and fluctuated over 4 orders of magnitude before going extinct (refs. 18 and 19; J.J.H., S. B. Weiss, J.F.M., C.L.B., P.R.E., A. E. Launer, and D. D. Murphy, unpublished work) (Fig. 1). The two habitat patches with longest occupancy at Jasper Ridge share common management histories, plant species, and climates (20). They differ primarily in size and topography. The larger patch (9.80 hectares; area C, JRC) is nearly flat, and the smaller patch (2.55 hectares; area H, JRH) is topographically heterogeneous. Although areas C and H are only 500 m apart, dispersal between them was low, averaging less than 2% of recaptured adults (16). These populations also were isolated: the only other suitable habitat at Jasper Ridge has been unoccupied since 1973 (ref. 18; J.J.H., S. B. Weiss, J.F....

Constraints to and conservation implications for climate change adaptation in plants

“…Arrows in (c) represent gene flow. *The use of seed banks could be employed under all scenarios to safeguard against loss of genetic diversity due to population extirpation butterflies, McLaughlin et al 2002;and frogs, Pounds et al 2006), but as yet there are no reports of climate driven extinctions in plants. There is, of course, the possibility that some species will persist without migration or genetic adaptation by, for example, exploiting microclimatic variation within their current range (e.g.…”

Impacts of climate change and land-use scenarios on Margaritifera margaritifera, an environmental indicator and endangered species

“…According to McLaughlin et al (2002) as well as to Pounds et al (2006), these changes in climate may have already caused several species extinctions. The IPCC (2014) corroborates this idea, stating, with high confidence that under projected climate change during and beyond the 21st century many terrestrial and freshwater species faces increased extinction risk once this phenomenon interacts with other stressors, such as habitat modification, over-exploitation, pollution, and invasive species.…”

Regional Climate Change Impacts on Wild Animals’ Living Territory in Central Europe

“…If these conditions change (e.g., by climate change) they may shift their ranges, or regulate their morphology, shifting the timing of life-cycle events or in the worst case, they may suffer extinction (Rosenzweig et al, 2007). Because of the large number of endangered species, several analyses focus on extinctions due to climate change recently (e.g., Burrowes et al, 2004;Sekercioglu et al, 2004;Pounds et al, 2006;McLaughlin et al, 2002). Specifically, 75 endemic frog species in the American tropics are extinct because of a pathogenic fungus (Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis) infection due to recent warming (Pounds et al, 2006).…”

“…Specifically, 75 endemic frog species in the American tropics are extinct because of a pathogenic fungus (Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis) infection due to recent warming (Pounds et al, 2006). Furthermore, a native butterfly, Euphydryas editha bayensis in the San Francisco Bay area in California is another victim of global warming because its total habitat loss and thus, extinction in the region were due to the increasing variability in precipitation (McLaughlin et al, 2002). Based on the study of Sekercioglu et al (2004) 21% of 9916 historic bird species of the world are threatened by extinction, and 6.5% of the analyzed IUCN Red List avian species are functionally extinct.…”