Climate change effects on Peruvian Lomas plant distribution

Abstract

The Lomas ecosystem, situated along the arid coast of Peru, is a key refuge for biodiversity. Lomas vegetation has evolved diverse adaptive mechanisms to thrive in this unique environment, strongly influenced by fog masses during winter months while allowing vegetation growth in the dry season. However, climate change poses a threat to this fragile ecosystem. Despite species’ resilience to drought, changing rainfall patterns and soil moisture reduction from aridification have led to population declines in recent decades, affecting various taxa. Understanding changes in habitat suitability and species distribution is crucial for mitigating increased extinction risks due to climate change. Urgent research is needed to comprehend these impacts on Peruvian Lomas, especially amidst urbanization and population growth, threatening their survival. In this study, Species Distribution Models (SDMs) predicted Lomas plant species distribution within the Andes and Lomas regions under two future (SSP1-2.6 and SSP3-7.0) scenarios. Both regions were expected to experience declines in habitat suitability, with Lomas being the most vulnerable, particularly under the SSP3-7.0 scenario. Endemic species were anticipated to migrate upslope, utilizing their unique adaptations, while non-endemic species might move downslope. High-elevation species were projected to undergo larger range shifts, while low-elevation species could face more pronounced habitat alterations, influenced by key traits and vegetation interactions. Due to the discontinuous distribution of Lomas systems along the coast, certain species already face threats that could alter these responses in the future. Urgent conservation efforts are necessary to mitigate habitat loss and fragmentation’s impacts on vulnerable plant species, especially with increasing urbanization and desertification in the region.