Climate change, ecosystem services and migration in the Marshall Islands: are they related?

Geest, Kees van der; Burkett, Maxine; Fitzpatrick, Juno; Stege, Mark; Wheeler, Brittany

doi:10.1007/s10584-019-02648-7

Cited by 37 publications

(27 citation statements)

References 19 publications

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“…Firstly, there were consistent recommendations to avoid universal promotion of migration as an adaptive response to climate risk, to prevent forced migration by investing in climate change adaptation at origin, and to consider relocation only as a last resort [ 12 , 43 , 55 , 58 , 70 , 76 , 85 , 97 ]. These recommendations echo the broader calls by, for example, the International Organization of Migration (IOM) to minimize forced climate-related migration [ 11 ] and also the need to avoid assumptions that mobility is inherently positive or negative [ 73 ].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Meta-Synthesis of Policy Recommendations Regarding Human Mobility in the Context of Climate Change

Schwerdtle

Stockemer

Bowen

et al. 2020

IJERPH

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Changing mobility patterns combined with changes in the climate present challenges and opportunities for global health, requiring effective, relevant, and humane policy responses. This study used data from a systematic literature review that examined the intersection between climate change, migration, and health. The study aimed to synthesize policy recommendations in the peer-reviewed literature, regarding this type of environmental migration with respect to health, to strengthen the evidence-base. Systematic searches were conducted in four academic databases (PubMed, Ovid Medline, Global Health and Scopus) and Google Scholar for empirical studies published between 1990–2020 that used any study design to investigate migration and health in the context of climate change. Studies underwent a two-stage protocol-based screening process and eligible studies were appraised for quality using a standardized mixed-methods tool. From the initial 2425 hits, 68 articles were appraised for quality and included in the synthesis. Among the policy recommendations, six themes were discernible: (1) avoid the universal promotion of migration as an adaptive response to climate risk; (2) preserve cultural and social ties of mobile populations; (3) enable the participation of migrants in decision-making in sites of relocation and resettlement; (4) strengthen health systems and reduce barriers for migrant access to health care; (5) support and promote optimization of social determinants of migrant health; (6) integrate health into loss and damage assessments related to climate change, and consider immobile and trapped populations. The results call for transformative policies that support the health and wellbeing of people engaging in or affected by mobility responses, including those whose migration decisions and experiences are influenced by climate change, and to establish and develop inclusive migrant healthcare.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Meta-Synthesis of Policy Recommendations Regarding Human Mobility in the Context of Climate Change

Schwerdtle

Stockemer

Bowen

et al. 2020

IJERPH

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“…Geospatial information systems are broadly utilized by several authors to collect and process data and map the SEV. GIS has been enabling researchers to have either large study regions or equivalent datasets at much finer spatial resolution (Unwin, 1996), for example, a comprehensive overview of the use of accessibility indicators in GIS was already provided by Deichmann (1997). Each author uses different versions of ArcGIS, which is the most widespread software used in GIS.…”

Section: Spatial Indexes Authorsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The presence of urban facilities must be included in the assessment of SV. Walker et al (2014) suggest developing a weighted "local resource" index for assessing systemic vulnerability since, for example, the absence of sports facilities is associated by Iguacel et al (2018), Vandermeerschen et al (2015), and Aguilar-Palacio et al (2013) with high levels of SV. In the spatial assessment of SEV, it is also necessary to consider the influence of the spatial component represented by physical space in the degree of vulnerability of a specific area, such as the relationship between slums and a low degree of wellness and health (Buzai and Villerías Alarcón, 2018).…”

Section: Recommendationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Quantitative measures to develop indicators can be spatially explicit and based on spatial variables, such as location, area, range, distance, direction, spatial geometries and patterns (Unwin, 1996), spatial connectivity, mobility (Béné, 2009), isolation, diffusion, distribution, spatial association, spatial interaction, spatial evolution, spatial synthesis, and scale of the affected area and surroundings (Béné, 2009;Buzai and Villerías Alarcón, 2018;Contreras et al, 2013;Meentemeyer, 1989). The geographic patterns in vulnerability can increase due to spatial interactions, while additional patterns within these components may be related to the nature of vulnerability stemming from a specific hazard (Amram et al, 2011).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Review article: The spatial dimension in the assessment of urban socio-economic vulnerability related to geohazards

Contreras

Chamorro

Wilkinson

2020

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. Society and economy are only two of the dimensions of vulnerability. This paper aims to elucidate the state of the art of data sources, spatial variables, indicators, methods, indexes and tools for the spatial assessment of socio-economic vulnerability (SEV) related to geohazards. This review was first conducted in December 2018 and re-run in March 2020 for the period between 2010 and 2020. The gross number of articles reviewed was 27, from which we identified 18 relevant references using a revised search query and six relevant references identified using the initial query, giving a total sample of 24 references. The most common source of data remains population censuses. The most recurrent spatial variable used for the assessment of SEV is households without basic services, while critical facilities are the most frequent spatial category. Traditional methods have been combined with more innovative and complex methods to select and weight spatial indicators and develop indices. The Social Vulnerability Index (SoVI®) remains the benchmark for the assessment of SEV and a reference for its spatial assessment. Geographic information systems (GIS) is the most common tool for conducting a spatial assessment of SEV regarding geohazards. For future spatial assessments of SEV regarding geohazards, we recommend considering 3-D spatial indexes at the microscale at the urban level and involving the community in the assessments.

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“…Mass loss from both Greenland (Trusel et al, 2018) and West Antarctic (Lenton et al, 2019) ice sheets is approaching or has already exceeded a "tipping point" beyond which melting becomes unstoppable. Furthermore, targets to stop fossil fuel emissions before reaching dangerous levels of warming are being missed (SEI, IISD, ODI, Climate Analytics, CICERO, and UNEP, 2019). The drivers of ASLR are increasingly likely to grow due to inputs from committed warming due to past emissions (Mauritsen & Pincus, 2017), rapidly narrowing carbon budgets to stop warming at 1.5°C (IPCC, 2018), socioeconomic inertia related to existing fossil fuel infrastructure (Tong et al, 2019), accelerated rates of warming (Xu et al, 2018), and projections of continued greenhouse gas emissions over the next few decades (Newell et al, 2019).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Rethinking Reef Island Stability in Relation to Anthropogenic Sea Level Rise

Kane

Fletcher

2020

Earth's Future

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Unprecedented rates of anthropogenic sea level rise (ASLR) and attendant wave-driven flooding and salinization threaten the stability (and habitability) of atoll islands. Thus, there is doubt regarding the continued existence of sovereign atoll nations and unique, place-based indigenous atoll cultures. Evidence that some atoll islands may have originally formed in the latter stages of post-glacial sea level rise (SLR) has been interpreted to mean they will persist under accelerating ASLR. These forecasts are at odds with interpretations that atoll islands will succumb to rising seas. To shed light on conflicting models of island stability, we develop a multitemporal island vulnerability assessment (MIVA) to anticipate island instability and apply it in the Republic of the Marshall Islands (RMI) where there is a history of previous research. Using evidence from geological and historical records of island response to changing late Holocene sea level and modern tide, wave, and groundwater observations, we identify thresholds where islands pass from stable to unstable phases due to projected local, relative ASLR. Under the most likely scenario (intermediate-high) where ASLR reaches 1.91 m by 2100, island stability deteriorates by midcentury as historical rates of SLR at RMI increase threefold, and temporary flood events deteriorate potable groundwater and agroforests. In the second half of the century, as ASLR exceeds geological sea level thresholds, permanent island instability will be inevitable with no action. We conclude that these islands are already trending into declining stability due to ASLR as documented by published observations of extreme tides, wave inundation, salinization, and sediment mobilization. Plain Language Summary Atoll islands are low-elevation accumulations of sand and gravel with thin aquifers and productive agroforests. Researchers disagree on whether atoll islands will be stable and habitable as sea level rises. We designed a method that integrates fossil data recording the origin and evolution of these islands, changes in island size from historical photographs, and modern observations of impacts from extreme tide and wave events, to define thresholds and time frames where islands transition from stable to unstable. We consider a range of future sea level rise scenarios and find that in all cases, islands experience rapid decreases in stability by midcentury. In the most likely scenario, the rate of sea level rise will triple and groundwater sources will be permanently lost, within only a few decades. Under an extreme scenario, islands will be fully unstable, the rate of sea level rise will triple, and community infrastructure will be at intolerable levels of risk as regional sea level exceeds 1 m by the year 2060. We urge that adaptation strategies be implemented now, that they incorporate both natural and engineered forms of resiliency, and that they be grounded on the principle that resilient islands also sustain the cultural identity of island people.

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Climate change, ecosystem services and migration in the Marshall Islands: are they related?

Cited by 37 publications

References 19 publications

A Meta-Synthesis of Policy Recommendations Regarding Human Mobility in the Context of Climate Change

A Meta-Synthesis of Policy Recommendations Regarding Human Mobility in the Context of Climate Change

Review article: The spatial dimension in the assessment of urban socio-economic vulnerability related to geohazards

Rethinking Reef Island Stability in Relation to Anthropogenic Sea Level Rise

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