Climate change, degradation, and land acquisitions: evaluating inequalities among competing interests for suitable cropland in Ethiopia

Abstract

Land is the central resource for agriculture. In many parts of Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), where a large portion of the population relies on agriculture for subsistence and household incomes, future declines in the productive capacity of the land owing to environmental change pose a major threat both to farming and the well-being of smallholders. Smallholders' access to land is concurrently at risk due to large-scale land acquisitions (LSLA), promoted by governments across SSA as a means to secure capital investments for agricultural growth and economic development. These issues are especially widespread in Ethiopia, which has faced both extensive land degradation and been a primary target country for LSLA investments. This study analyzes the relative quality of land under the control of smallholders vs. large investors in western Ethiopia, with particular attention to how future suitability of land is likely to change for growing three major smallholder crops: Maize (Zea mays), sorghum (Sorghum bicolor), and beans (Phaseolus vulgaris L.). Spatial analyses are applied to compare the suitability in areas allocated to LSLAs and the remaining land available to smallholders in the country's western farming systems. Crop-specific suitability datasets are used to approximate the change in land quality between baseline conditions and scenarios of future climate change to assess the effects of climate-induced land degradation. Results indicate large areas of decreasing suitability by the late 21 st century for all crops across Ethiopia. Furthermore, this study shows that LSLA occupy land with more stable suitability, suggesting more secure agricultural land is being offered to investors.

Land degradation and food security nexus in Sub Saharan Africa

“…The following the works of the following authors', (Muir et al, 2023), Ceesay, E. (2020), (Ceesay et al, (2021), (Ceesay E., 2020). we estimated the Pooled OLS as follows;…”

The Factors and Actors Engaged in Land Transaction Arrangement and Commoditization in Africa: an Example From the Bolgatanga Municipality of Northern Ghana

“…Whether in developed or in developing countries, people's livelihoods depend directly or indirectly on land. However, Muir, Smith, and Agrawal (2023) state that access to arable productive land in Africa is on the decline due to the pressure of growing population trends and worsening land degradation which is caused by climate change. And population growth has led to the rush and conversion of small subsistence farmlands to large scale farms or to non-agriculture use by both local and foreign investors.…”