Climate change could overturn bird migration: Transarctic flights and high-latitude residency in a sea ice free Arctic

Abstract

Climate models predict that by 2050 the Arctic Ocean will be sea ice free each summer. Removing this barrier between the Atlantic and the Pacific will modify a wide range of ecological processes, including bird migration. Using published information, we identified 29 arctic-breeding seabird species, which currently migrate in the North Atlantic and could shift to a transarctic migration towards the North Pacific. We also identified 24 arctic-breeding seabird species which may shift from a migratory strategy to high-arctic year-round residency. To illustrate the biogeographical consequences of such drastic migratory shifts, we performed an in-depth study of little auks (Alle alle), the most numerous artic seabird. Coupling species distribution models and climatic models, we assessed the adequacy of future wintering and breeding areas for transarctic migrants and high-arctic year-round residents. Further, we used a mechanistic bioenergetics model (Niche Mapper), to compare the energetic costs of current little auk migration in the North Atlantic with potential transarctic and high-arctic residency strategies. Surprisingly, our results indicate that transarctic little auk migration, from the North Atlantic towards the North Pacific, may only be half as costly, energetically, than high-arctic residency or migration to the North Atlantic. Our study illustrates how global warming may radically modify the biogeography of migratory species, and provides a general methodological framework linking migratory energetics and spatial ecology.

The changing Arctic Ocean: consequences for biological communities, biogeochemical processes and ecosystem functioning

“…This seasonality results in pulses of primary productivity that largely sustain ecosystems for the entire year. Warmer air and water temperatures, however, affect timing of ecological processes via changing phenologies of plants and animals, migration/advection patterns of predators and prey, and community composition as Arctic species are replaced by advancing southern taxa [27][28][29][30]. These changes can have substantial implications for ecosystem functioning by altering carbon drawdown and storage, trophic interactions, nutrient cycling and the integrity of Arctic assemblages.…”

Lessons learned and questions raised during and post-COVID-19 anthropopause period in relation to the environment and climate

“…Climate warming leads also in thickening of the active soil layer, i.e., the upper soil region that responds to the seasonal ambient conditions (temperature and precipitation) (Streletskiy et al 2015 ). The consecutive melting of permafrost layers from year to year due to climate warming could eventually result to the exposure of gradually deeper permafrost layers and thus increase the possibility for exposure of contaminating sources such as buried carcasses, cemetery graves and fossils along the migrating birds’ pathways and stopover sites (Clairbaux et al 2019 ). Lower latitude permafrost areas such as the regions of north Mongolia and south Russia (e.g., Irkutsk, Lake Baikal) are more susceptible to inter-annual temperature changes and to global warming (Hueffer et al 2020 ).…”

“…This could modify the behavior of several local species including migrating birds. Emerging of new stopover sites previously covered by ice and the ability to prey on the open sea might alter the birds’ habits such as migrating routes and wintering areas (Clairbaux et al 2019 ). To emphasize the complexity of this hypothesis, climate warming and consequent changes in permafrost are more evident near lakes and wetlands accompanied also by geological deformations such as landslides along river and lake banks due to permafrost thawing and increase of the active layer depth (Tyszkowski et al 2015 ).…”

Limited heat tolerance in a cold-adapted seabird: implications of a warming Arctic

“…organisms that actively maintain relatively constant body temperatures through metabolic heat production). Several studies have highlighted the indirect effects of warming on Arctic wildlife, such as compositional shifts in the prey base (Gaston and Hipfner, 1998;Gaston et al, 2005;Yurkowski et al, 2018), earlier breeding phenology and shifts in the timing of migration (Chmura et al, 2020;Clairbaux et al, 2019;Le Corre et al, 2017). In contrast, the direct effects of warming on the physiology and behaviour of Arctic endotherms has been observed but less studied (Gaston et al, 2002).…”