Climate change-based models predict range shifts in the distribution of the only Asian plethodontid salamander: Karsenia koreana

Abstract

Populations see their range fluctuate in relation to environmental variations, including climate change, and their survival is linked to the maintenance of large enough populations and broad enough distributions during these variations. Most amphibian populations are threatened by numerous ecological and anthropogenic variables acting in synergy with climate change. Accumulating basic ecological data such as range enables the development of population and range dynamics, themselves resulting on adequate conservation plans. Karsenia koreana is the only known Asian plethodontic salamander, occurring in a very restricted area only. Based on presence data, we created an ecological model using six bioclimatic factors with low multicollinearity to define the adequate habitat of the species, and we modelled the predicted suitability of the Korean landscape following four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) predicting climate change scenarios based on CO 2 concentrations in 2050 and 2070. The maximum entropy model for the current distribution produced a landscape suitability considerably wider than the current known distribution. The projected ranges for each RCP indicated marked increases, decreases and shifts in areas with suitable landscapes due to climate change. The lowest RCP prediction resulted in an increase in suitable area, although potentially without connectivity with current populations, while the highest RCP predictions resulted in a decrease. Our results highlight the potential negative impact of climate change, thus requiring updates in conservation plans for K. koreana . The methods used here can be replicated with any land-dwelling species, and our results reflect expected range shifts for most amphibians of the northern hemisphere.

Modeling current and future global distribution of Chrysomya bezziana under changing climate

“…The distribution models generated in this study, based only on climatological variables, assess the effect of climate change on the current and future distribution of OWSF. Several publications have used only the climatic variables for this purpose [54][55][56][57][58][59] . Incorporating other environmental variables such as human population, land cover, vegetation index, host animal distribution, etc, could improve the resultant models.…”

Centring Indigenous knowledge systems to re‐imagine conservation translocations

“…For example, the potential to characterize adaptive variation has reignited debate over the benefits and risks of mixing disparate populations (e.g. Borzee et al., 2019; Burridge, 2019; Kolodny et al., 2019; Ralls et al., 2018). We anticipate that bringing together Indigenous and Western knowledge systems through Two‐Eyed Seeing will enable more nuanced decisions for questions such as these.…”

Fuzzy sets allow gaging the extent and rate of species range shift due to climate change

“…Throughout the last century, and especially over the last few decades, there have been global alterations leading to a warmer climate 7 with widespread effects on biological systems [8][9][10] . This recent climate change has already caused expansions, reductions, or shifts in the distribution of many species [11][12][13][14] . In particular, climate shifts are modifying the margins of species distributions over short periods of time, a process that is more marked in vagile species such as birds 15,16 .…”