Climate Change and Wildlife in the Southern United States

Greenberg, Cathryn H.; Perry, Roger W.; Franzreb, Kathleen E.; Loeb, Susan C.; Saenz, Daniel; Rudolph, D. Craig; Winters, Eric A.; Fucik, E.M.; Kwiatkowski,; Parresol, Bernard R.; Austin, James D.; Tanner, George W.

doi:10.1201/b15613-12

Cited by 3 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 157 publications

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“…Our results suggest that moderate climate warming may not directly affect anuran populations, but associated changes with weather patterns including the amount, frequency, timing, and severity of precipitation will almost certainly alter wetland hydroregimes (Greenberg et al. , ), breeding activity, and reproductive success among amphibian species. Climate scenarios with substantially reduced summer and fall precipitation would likely result in reduced groundwater recharge and shorter, shallower hydroperiods during the critical fall–winter–spring breeding cycle for L. capito and L. sphenocephalus .…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 75%

“…Clearly, altered weather patterns associated with climate warming will differentially affect reproductive success among amphibian species with different breeding strategies, with critical implications for amphibian population trends and assemblages (Greenberg et al. , ). Our study highlights the importance of maintaining multiple ephemeral wetlands within landscapes to increase chances for reproductive success by species with different strategies, in at least some years and wetlands.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Historically, climate change has been an important driver in range shifts, extinction, colonization, and evolution through adaptation of species (Greenberg et al. ). Amphibians have evolved diverse life history strategies allowing them to persist under stochastic and changing environmental conditions.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Amphibians that primarily breed in ephemeral wetlands are especially vulnerable to altered weather patterns resulting from climate change because of their reliance on precipitation‐driven hydroregime characteristics such as the timing, depth, frequency, and duration of water in wetlands (Brooks , Greenberg et al. ). Changes in weather patterns including temperature, and the amount, frequency, timing, and severity of precipitation will almost certainly alter wetland hydroregimes (Greenberg et al.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Weather, hydroregime, and breeding effort influence juvenile recruitment of anurans: implications for climate change

2017

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Abstract. Amphibians that primarily breed in ephemeral wetlands are especially vulnerable to climate change because they rely on rainfall or temperature to initiate breeding and create suitable hydroregimes (water duration, timing, frequency, depth) for reproductive success. Hydroregime effects on reproductive success are likely to differ among species because of differences in reproductive strategies: the length and timing of breeding period, rate of larval development, and timing of metamorphosis. We applied an information-theoretic approach to 22 consecutive years of continuous amphibian trapping data at eight ephemeral wetlands to test hypotheses regarding environmental (hydroregime, weather) and biological (adult breeding effort) factors affecting juvenile recruitment (JR) by six focal species representing four reproductive strategies. We hypothesized that (1) JR by species with similar reproductive strategies would be influenced by similar variables; (2) JR would be higher for all species when models encompassed the maximum time span of potential tadpole occurrence and development; and (3) JR rates within individual wetlands and breeding cycles would correlate most closely between species with similar breeding strategies. The best model for all focal species (except Scaphiopus holbrookii) encompassed the maximum time span and indicated that ≥1 hydroregime variable, total precipitation, or both were important drivers of reproductive success; average air temperature was not. Continuous hydroperiod through peak juvenile emigration was an important predictor of JR for species with prolonged breeding periods, slow larval development, and a "fixed" late spring start date for juvenile emigration (regardless of when oviposition occurred, or cohort age; Lithobates capito, Lithobates sphenocephalus), but not for species with rapid larval development and continual emigration as cohorts complete metamorphosis (Anaxyrus terrestris, Anaxyrus quercicus, Gastrophryne carolinensis, S. holbrookii). Total rainfall was positively associated with recruitment for most species; depth characteristics affected species differently. Annual JR was positively correlated among species with similar reproductive strategies. Our results indicate that weather and hydroregime characteristics interact with reproductive strategies that differ among amphibian species and influence reproductive plasticity, opportunity, and success. Effects of altered weather patterns associated with climate change on amphibian reproductive success may correspond more closely among species having similar reproductive strategies, with critical implications for population trends and assemblages.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 75%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Weather, hydroregime, and breeding effort influence juvenile recruitment of anurans: implications for climate change

2017

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“…Some studies even rely only on climate‐derived variables; this is especially true for studies predicting species shifts due to climate change, although the climate may not be enough to predict major shifts in species' distribution (Araújo & Guisan, 2006). Especially in vertebrates, such as large mammals, climatic variables might influence some species only indirectly by affecting their food and shelter as their habitat selection would be more likely driven by landscape features and structure and/or human impact (Berteaux & Stenseth, 2006; Greenberg et al, 2014). Thus, many studies fail at choosing important variables shown to be physiologically relevant to the species (Gardner et al, 2019).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Importance of data selection and filtering in species distribution models: A case study on the Cantabrian brown bear

et al. 2022

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Species distribution models (SDMs) are powerful tools in ecology and conservation. Choosing the right environmental drivers and filtering species' occurrences taking their biases into account are key factors to consider before modeling. In this case study, we address five common problems arising during the selection of input data for presence‐only SDMs on an example of a generalist species: the endangered Cantabrian brown bear. First, we focus on the selection of environmental variables that may drive its distribution, testing if climatic variables should be considered at a 1‐km analysis grain. Second, we investigate how filtering the species' data in view of (1) their collection procedures, (2) different time frames, (3) dispersal areas, and (4) subpopulations affects the performance and outputs of the models at three different spatial analysis grains (500 m, 1 km, and 5 km). Our results show that models with different input data yielded only minor differences in performance and behaved properly in terms of model validation, although coarsening the analysis grain deteriorated model performance. Still, the contribution of individual variables and the habitat suitability predictions differed among models. We show that a combination of limited data availability and poor selection of environmental variables can lead to inaccurate predictions. Specifically for the brown bear, we conclude that climatic variables should not be considered for exploring habitat suitability and that the best input data for modeling habitat suitability in the study area originate from (1) observations and traces from the (2) most recent period (2006–2019) in which the population is expanding, (3) not considering cells of dispersing bear occurrences and (4) modeling subpopulations independently (as they show distinct habitat preferences). In conclusion, SDMs can serve as a useful tool for generalist species including all available data; still, expert evaluation from the perspective of data suitability for the purpose of modeling and possible biases is recommended. This is especially important when the results are intended for management and conservation purposes at the local level, and for species that respond to the environment at coarse analysis grains.

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Projected Climate and Hydroregime Variability Constrain Ephemeral Wetland-Dependent Amphibian Populations in Simulations of Southern Toads

Awkerman

Greenberg

2022

Ecologies

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Amphibian populations are threatened globally by stressors, including diminishing availability of suitable wetland breeding sites, altered hydroregimes driven by changing weather patterns, and exposure to contaminants. Ecological risk assessment should encompass spatial and temporal scales that capture influential ecological processes and demographic responses. Following the PopGUIDE framework of population model development for risk assessment, we used matrix population models, in conjunction with existing hydroregime predictions, under a climate change scenario to evaluate the effects of environmental stochasticity and aquatic pesticide exposure on amphibians that are dependent on ephemeral wetlands. Using southern toads (Anaxyrus terrestris) as an example, we simulated population dynamics with breeding success dependent on hydroregime suitability. Years were defined as optimal, marginal, or insufficient for successful toad recruitment, based on the duration of their potential breeding season and rate of larval development to metamorphosis. We simulated both probabilistic and chronologically specific population projections, including variable annual fecundity, based on hydroregime suitability and reduced larval survival from carbaryl exposure. In our simulations, populations were more negatively impacted by prolonged drought, and consequently multiple sequential years of reproductive failure, than by aquatic pesticide exposure. These results highlight the necessity of reliable climate projections to accurately represent the effects of altered hydroregimes on amphibian populations. Risk assessment approaches could be improved with flexible modifications that allow inclusion of various extrinsic stressors and identification of demographic and ecological vulnerabilities when precise data are lacking.

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Climate Change and Wildlife in the Southern United States

Cited by 3 publications

References 157 publications

Weather, hydroregime, and breeding effort influence juvenile recruitment of anurans: implications for climate change

Weather, hydroregime, and breeding effort influence juvenile recruitment of anurans: implications for climate change

Importance of data selection and filtering in species distribution models: A case study on the Cantabrian brown bear

Projected Climate and Hydroregime Variability Constrain Ephemeral Wetland-Dependent Amphibian Populations in Simulations of Southern Toads

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