Climate change and variability in Sub-Saharan Africa: a review of current and future trends and impacts on agriculture and food security

Abstract

Sub-Saharan Africa has been portrayed as the most vulnerable region to the impacts of global climate change because of its reliance on agriculture which is highly sensitive to weather and climate variables such as temperature, precipitation, and light and extreme events and low capacity for adaptation. This article reviews evidence on the scope and nature of the climate change challenge; and assesses the impact of climate change on agriculture and food security in Sub-Saharan Africa. From the review, it is apparent that the climate in Africa is already exhibiting significant changes, evident by changes in average temperature, change in amount of rainfall and patterns and the prevalence of frequency and intensity of weather extremes. The review also revealed that although uncertainties exist with regards to the magnitude of impacts, climate will negatively affect agricultural production in Sub-Saharan Africa. Specifically, as result of current and expected climate change, the area suitable for agriculture, the length of growing seasons and yield potential, particularly along the margins of semi-arid and arid areas, are expected to decrease. These impacts will affect all components of food security: food availability, food accessibility, food utilisation and food stability and hence increase the risk of hunger in the region. The review thus confirms the general consensus that Sub-Saharan Africa is the most vulnerable region to climate change. It suggests that, policymakers and development agencies should focus on formulating and implementing policies and programmes that promote farm level adaptation strategies currently being practiced by farmers across the region.

Climate change, food security, and livelihoods in sub-Saharan Africa

“…In sub-Saharan Africa, such research has suggested that overall, East Africa will experience wetter weather and Southeast Africa will become drier (Kotir 2011). Changes in rainfall patterns are expected to result in loss of cropland (Niang et al 2014;Kotir 2011). Crop yields in most of sub-Saharan Africa are estimated to fall by at least 10-20 % by 2050 (Kotir 2011;Thornton et al 2011).…”

“…Changes in rainfall patterns are expected to result in loss of cropland (Niang et al 2014;Kotir 2011). Crop yields in most of sub-Saharan Africa are estimated to fall by at least 10-20 % by 2050 (Kotir 2011;Thornton et al 2011). Arid and semiarid regions of the continent are expected to expand (Kotir 2011).…”

“…Crop yields in most of sub-Saharan Africa are estimated to fall by at least 10-20 % by 2050 (Kotir 2011;Thornton et al 2011). Arid and semiarid regions of the continent are expected to expand (Kotir 2011). In West Africa, it is expected that rainfall will be more variable and less predictable, which will reduce the length of the growing season.…”

Variance components and heritability of yield and yield components of wheat under drought-stressed and non-stressed conditions

“…Wheat is a C3 crop that is sensitive to drought stress and high temperature conditions, especially during the post-anthesis growth stages, when the crop is often faced by erratic rainfall and prolonged dry spells (Alain et al, 2011;Ilker et al, 2011). Breeding wheat cultivars with drought and heat tolerance is considered to be an economic and sustainable drought mitigation strategy, notably under low input farming systems in sub-Saharan Africa (Kotir, 2011). Suitable genetic resources with complementary drought adaptive traits are required to speedup breeding of wheat cultivars that are better adapted to marginal rainfall conditions (Manes et al, 2012).…”

Assessing Coherence between Sector Policies and Climate Compatible Development: Opportunities for Triple Wins

“…Increased incidence of extreme storms and floods are also projected [3]. Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is anticipated to experience both seasonal and annual rainfall variability [4,5]. Rising temperatures in combination with increased rainfall variability can adversely affect land-based livelihood systems that (ii) What is the extent of policy coherence amongst the climate-sensitive sector policies of Ghana's economy?…”