Climate change and upwelling: response of Iberian upwelling to atmospheric forcing in a regional climate scenario

Miranda, Pedro; Alves, José; Serra, Nuno

doi:10.1007/s00382-012-1442-9

Cited by 63 publications

(35 citation statements)

References 35 publications

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“…However, there is a scarcity of coastal upwelling studies based on GCMs (Miranda et al 2012) and the apparently opposing results from models with different resolutions might be partly explained by the scale of analysis rather than being contradictory projections (Bakun et al 2010). …”

Section: Coastal Upwelling In Coupled Atmosphere-ocean Gcm (Aogcm)mentioning

confidence: 99%

The future of coastal upwelling in the Humboldt current from model projections

Oyarzún

Brierley

2018

Clim Dyn

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The Humboldt coastal upwelling system in the eastern South Pacific ocean is one of the most productive marine ecosystems in the world. A weakening of the upwelling activity could lead to severe ecological impacts. As coastal upwelling in eastern boundary systems is mainly driven by wind stress, most studies so far have analysed wind patterns change through the 20th and 21st Centuries in order to understand and project the phenomenon under specific forcing scenarios. Mixed results have been reported, and analyses from General Circulation Models have suggested even contradictory trends of wind stress for the Humboldt system. In this study, we analyse the ocean upwelling directly in 13 models contributing to phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) in both the historical simulations and an extreme climate change scenario (RCP8.5). The upwelling is represented by the upward ocean mass flux, a newly-included variable that represents the vertical water transport. Additionally, wind stress, ocean stratification, Ekman layer depth and thermocline depth were also analysed to explore their interactions with coastal upwelling throughout the period studied. The seasonal cycle of coastal upwelling differs between the Northern and Southern Humboldt areas. At lower latitudes, the upwelling season spans most of the autumn, winter and spring. However, in the Southern Humboldt area the upwelling season takes place in spring and the summertime with downwelling activity in winter. This persists throughout the Historical and RCP8.5 simulations. For both the Northern and Southern Humboldt areas an increasing wind stress is projected. However, different trends of upwelling intensity are observed away from the sea surface. Whereas wind stress will continue controlling the decadal variability of coastal upwelling on the whole ocean column analysed (surface to 300 m depth), an increasing disconnect with upwelling intensity is projected below 100 m depth throughout the 21st Century. This relates to an intensification of ocean stratification under global warming as shown by the sea water temperature profiles. Additionally, a divergence between the Ekman layer and thermocline depths is also evidenced. Given the interaction of upwelled nutrients and microscopic organisms essential for fish growth, a potential decline of coastal upwelling at depth could lead to unknown ecological and socio-economical effects.

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Section: Coastal Upwelling In Coupled Atmosphere-ocean Gcm (Aogcm)mentioning

confidence: 99%

The future of coastal upwelling in the Humboldt current from model projections

Oyarzún

Brierley

2018

Clim Dyn

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“…These areas are among the most productive fisheries of the global ocean, due to the cold nutrient-enriched upwelled bottom waters that give rise to very rich biological activity at the surface. Although, the interaction between these winds features and upwelling has been relatively well studied [45][46][47][48][49][50] that is not the case with the regional wave climate. Concerns about waves and sea-state forecast on the western coasts of Morocco go back to early twentieth century, when an early warning system to the incoming of winter swells that could seriously limit harbor operations in Casablanca was developed by the French Navy, in collaboration with the Portuguese Weather Office in the Azores [51].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Seasonal Variability of Wind Sea and Swell Waves Climate along the Canary Current: The Local Wind Effect

Semedo

2018

JMSE

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A climatology of wind sea and swell waves along the Canary eastern boundary current area, from west Iberia to Mauritania, is presented. The study is based on the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) reanalysis ERA-Interim. The wind regime along the Canary Current, along west Iberia and north-west Africa, varies significantly from winter to summer. High summer wind speeds generate high wind sea waves, particularly along the coasts of Morocco and Western Sahara. Lower winter wind speeds, along with stronger extratropical storms crossing the North Atlantic sub-basin up north lead to a predominance of swell waves in the area during from December to February. In summer, the coast parallel wind interacts with the coastal headlands, increasing the wind speed and the locally generated waves. The spatial patterns of the wind sea or swell regional wave fields are shown to be different from the open ocean, due to coastal geometry, fetch dimensions, and island sheltering.

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“…In the future scenarios, apart from the changes at the catchment boundary, there is a significant rise in median net solar radiation (471-501 Wm −2 , P < 0.001) from p0 to the end of the century scenario p3, resulting in a more vigorous and widespread coastal upwelling at the ocean boundary (Miranda et al 2013). In the lagoon, water median temperature significantly (P < 0.001) decreases by 2-3°C (e.g., from a median range of 16.5-17.1°C to 13.4-14.4°C), whilst the median salinity significantly increases (e.g., WB4 from 19.2 to 23.8 PSU, P < 0.001 and WB1 from 30.0 to 31.4 PSU, P = 0.002).…”

Section: Results Of Climate Change Impact Assessment For the Lagoons mentioning

confidence: 99%