CLIMATE CHANGE AND UKRAINIAN CITIES: MANIFESTATIONS AND PROJECTIONS ON 21st CENTURY BASED ON RCP-SCENARIOS

Shevchenko, О.; Snizhko, S.

doi:10.17721/1728-2721.2019.75.2

Cited by 9 publications

(9 citation statements)

References 19 publications

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“…This study showed that the dynamics of the fire weather index is correspond to observed climate changes in the continental part of Europe, where climate becoming warmer and drier (Shevchenko and Snizhko, 2019). The increase in the frequency of higher levels of fire hazardous weather occurs primarily in the southern areas of Belarus and northern areas of Ukraine, which indicates climatic shifts towards a dry and hot climate in the zone of mixed forests, as a result of which is possible to change the type of natural zone into the forest-steppe.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 56%

Dynamics of fire weather conditions in the mixed forest areas of Belarus and Ukraine under recent climate change

Semenova

Sumak²

2022

Geofizika (Online)

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The study examines spatiotemporal distribution of fire weather conditions during the fire seasons of 1990–2020 in the mixed forests areas of the territory of Belarus and Ukraine using monthly mean Fire Weather Index (FWI) averaged for each administrative area in the study region. It was revealed that the lowest FWI values were observed in the northern and northwestern regions of Belarus, the highest values were in the southeast. On the territory of Ukraine, FWI values increase toward the east regions. In the seasonal distribution, the FWI increases from March to May and in the middle of summer the index reaches a maximum in the all regions. Analysis of the FWI dynamics over the five-year periods showed that the frequency of danger fire weather conditions varied from a "very low" level to "moderate" level most of the study period. In the last pentad 2015–2020, "high" fire danger level began to appear in the south of Belarus and in the northern part of Ukraine. During the study period, in some regions of Ukraine, there was a decrease in the frequency of the FWI values of 'low' danger level and its simultaneous increase at the higher levels, in connection with the observed climate change in the region.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 56%

Dynamics of fire weather conditions in the mixed forest areas of Belarus and Ukraine under recent climate change

Semenova

Sumak²

2022

Geofizika (Online)

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“…The mean annual precipitation changes exhibited nonsignificant and generally positive deviations within 5-10% from climatological norms in all neighboring countries (Latvia`s 4th National Communication 2006;Roshydromet 2008;Summary Report 2017;Tripolskaja 2013;Jaagus 2018;Shevchenko 2019;Szwed 2019) and Belarus, while positive changes in intense precipitation were more marked (Roshydromet 2008;Reckermann 2011;Summary Report 2017;Balabukh 2018a;Pińskwar et al 2018a).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 97%

Estimates of current and future climate change in Belarus based on meteorological station data and the EURO-CORDEX-11 dataset

Логинов¹,

Geyer²

2021

Meteorol. Hydrol. Water Manage.

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This study provides an assessment of the current and future changes (in terms of both direction and value) in air temperature, precipitation, snow, wind and their extremes over the territory of Belarus using information from 42 meteorological stations and 92 regional circulation model (RCM) simulations with the highest available horizontal resolution (EUR-11). Three representative concentration pathway scenarios, namely, RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, are considered.Results demonstrate that in recent decades, temperature has increased over the territory of Belarus by 1.3°C, with the largest increase occurring during the cold season (2.1-2.3°C). Ensemble scenarios project further increases in air temperature in the current century by +0.5-1.5°C, +2.8°C, and +5.2°C under the RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, with the largest increase during the cold season under the RCP8.5 scenario. The annual means were observed to increase (insignificantly) by 5-7% and the summer precipitation extremes exhibited a 20-25% growth in recent decades. Moreover, dry conditions have intensified in Belarus, particularly during the growing season. Further increases in precipitation of 10-15% across Belarus are projected to occur in all seasons under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. Simulation models predict greater increases in single day rainfall events compared to their multiday precipitation counterparts. The greatest increases in maximal dry period length (by 1-2) are expected to occur in summer and autumn. The models project the general decrease in snowfall across Belarus to continue into the current century, with a reduction in snow precipitation days of 10-30 days. Despite the reduced wind strength (by 0.9-1.0 m•s -1 ) since the 1970s over the territory of Belarus, the ensemble model reveals slight nonsignificant changes in seasonal and annual wind strengths until the end of the century. Significant changes of 1-3 days under varying directions of the wind regime were observed for days with a strong breeze and storms.

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“…Для українських міст це важливо, адже протягом останніх декількох десятирічь середня річна температура міст України зросла на 1,2 С порівняно з кліматичною нормою (1961-1990 рр.) [23]. Нами були проаналізовані норми озеленення українських міст (табл.…”

Section: енергетикаunclassified

Assessment of costs on the adaptation to climate change in Ukraine

Trypolska¹

2020

Ekon. prognozuvannâ

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The paper focuses on the main adaptation measures financed in Ukraine at the expense of state and regional budgets region-wise during 2016-2018 within the framework of environmental activities. The source of data was "Environmental passports of the regions". The paper finds that during 2016-2018 the most funded items of expenditure were the construction and repair of sewerage, clearing of riverbeds, repair of water protection structures and wastewater treatment. A significant gap in the cost of measures of an adaptive nature between the regions is established. Expenditures in the Transcarpathian region, which most suffers from floods, were the lowest: they were 46 times lower than expenditures on adaptation measures in the Dnipropetrovsk region, which actively allocated funds for clearing riverbeds and strengthening the river banks. During 2016-2018, almost USD 110 million were proved to be spent on adaptation measures in Ukraine. The main source of funds were local budgets, in particular regional environmental funds. Green bonds are determined to become a promising source of funding for adaptation measures in Ukraine. For the first time, the amount of funds required for adaptation measures in Ukraine until 2050 has been partially estimated. It is proved that the only international funds that can provide funding for adaptation measures in Ukraine in late 2020, is the Global Environmental Facility.

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CLIMATE CHANGE AND UKRAINIAN CITIES: MANIFESTATIONS AND PROJECTIONS ON 21st CENTURY BASED ON RCP-SCENARIOS

Cited by 9 publications

References 19 publications

Dynamics of fire weather conditions in the mixed forest areas of Belarus and Ukraine under recent climate change

Dynamics of fire weather conditions in the mixed forest areas of Belarus and Ukraine under recent climate change

Estimates of current and future climate change in Belarus based on meteorological station data and the EURO-CORDEX-11 dataset

Assessment of costs on the adaptation to climate change in Ukraine

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