Climate change and the potential effects on runoff and nitrogen losses in the Nordic–Baltic region

Øygarden, Lillian; Deelstra, Johannes; Lagzdiņš, Ainis; Bechmann, Marianne; Greipsland, Inga; Kyllmar, Katarina; Povilaitis, Arvydas; Iital, Arvo

doi:10.1016/j.agee.2014.06.025

Cited by 74 publications

(36 citation statements)

References 37 publications

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“…Previous studies also demonstrate a larger fractional export of NANI by rivers when NANI exceeds some threshold value (e.g., 10.7 kg N ha À1 yr À1 , Howarth et al, 2012), which corresponds to NANI exceeding the N assimilative capacity of terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems (McIsaac et al, 2001;Han et al, 2009;Chen et al, 2014b;Gao et al, 2014). As a result, changes of climate, land management, and the degree of N saturation have a strong potential to enhance riverine N export (McIsaac et al, 2001;Huang et al, 2014;Øygarden et al, 2014). Importantly, the influence of climate change, land-use change and progressive N saturation is difficult to detect from short-term (several years) records, instead requiring a long-term (several decades) record of NANI and riverine N export dynamics.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modeling forest/agricultural and residential nitrogen budgets and riverine export dynamics in catchments with contrasting anthropogenic impacts in eastern China between 1980–2010

Chen

Guo

et al. 2016

Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment

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A B S T R A C TThis study quantified the long-term response of riverine total nitrogen (TN) export to changes in net anthropogenic nitrogen inputs to forest/agricultural (NANI FA ) and residential (NANI R ) systems across three catchments affected by low (LD), medium (MD), and high (HD) human impacts in eastern China. Annual NANI FA increased by 63-87% in 1980-1999, followed by 0% (LD), À23% (MD) and À40% (HD) changes of NANI FA in 2000-2010, resulting in a net increase of 56-78% in NANI FA in 1980-2010. Annual NANI R increased by 101-152% in the three catchments in 1980-2010. Land-use showed a 58-65% increase in developed land area (D%) and a 96-108% increase in agricultural lands with improved drainage systems (AD%) over the study period. In response to changes in NANI FA , NANI R and land-use, riverine TN flux continuously increased 3.0-to 6.1-fold in the three catchments over the past 31 years. For each catchment, an empirical model incorporating annual NANI FA , NANI R , water discharge, D%, and AD% was developed (R 2 = 0.93 À 0.97) for predicting and quantifying sources of annual riverine TN fluxes. The model estimated that NANI FA , NANI R and other N sources (e.g., natural background, legacy, and industrial N sources) contributed 27-90%, 0-45%, and 10-28% of riverine TN fluxes, respectively. Model results were consistent with spatio-temporal changes of riverine chloride, ammonium, nitrate, dissolve oxygen and pH, as well as changes in available N levels in agricultural soils. In terms of N source management, reduction of NANI FA in catchment LD and NANI R in catchment HD would have the greatest impact on reducing riverine TN fluxes. Furthermore, changes in land use and climate as well as legacy N should be considered in developing N pollution control strategies.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modeling forest/agricultural and residential nitrogen budgets and riverine export dynamics in catchments with contrasting anthropogenic impacts in eastern China between 1980–2010

Chen

Guo

et al. 2016

Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment

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“…The nutrient loading is often divided into internal and external sources [47]. Higher water temperature will reduce the self-purification capacity and degradation coefficients of water, increasing the stratification and enhancing the internal nutrient loading that could likely provide a favorable environment for cyanobacteria [48,49].…”

Section: Direct and Indirect Effects Of Increasing Temperaturementioning

confidence: 99%

The Potential Impacts of Climate Change Factors on Freshwater Eutrophication: Implications for Research and Countermeasures of Water Management in China

et al. 2016

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Abstract:Water eutrophication has become one of the most serious aquatic environmental problems around the world. More and more research has indicated climate change as a major natural factor that will lead to the acceleration of eutrophication in rivers and lakes. However, understanding the mechanism of climate change's effect on water eutrophication is difficult due to the uncertainties caused by its complex, non-linear process. There is considerable uncertainty about the magnitude of future temperature changes, and how these will drive eutrophication in water bodies at regional scales under the effect of human activities. This review collects the existing international and domestic literature from the last 10 years, discussing the most sensitive factors of climate change (i.e., temperature, precipitation, wind, and solar radiation) and analyzing their interaction with water eutrophication. Case studies of serious eutrophication and algal bloom problems in China are discussed to further demonstrate the conclusion. Finally, adaptation countermeasures and related implications are proposed in order to foster the development of sustainability strategies for water management in China.

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“…Several studies emphasize the need to consider this in the next generation river basin management plans under the WFD (Oeygarden et al, 2014;Quevauviller et al, 2012;Wright et al, 2010). Not least in relation to eutrophication problems, climate change seems to present a significant additional threat to the achievement of the good ecological status objective for surface waters.…”

Section: Climate Change and Wfd Rbmpsmentioning

confidence: 97%

“…The future impacts of climate change in southern Scandinavia are, especially due to rising temperatures and changes in precipitation patterns, projected to lead to conditions where nutrient loads will have to be further reduced compared to current climate conditions (Andersen, 2012;Jeppesen et al, 2011;Meier et al, 2012;Oeygarden et al, 2014). Nutrient concentrations and loads in the aquatic environment are likely to increase in a future climate due to increasing winter precipitation resulting in higher fluxes of N and P to surface waters.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 98%

Using a map-based assessment tool for the development of cost-effective WFD river basin action programmes in a changing climate

Kaspersen

Jacobsen

Butts

et al. 2016

Journal of Environmental Management

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Climate change and the potential effects on runoff and nitrogen losses in the Nordic–Baltic region

Cited by 74 publications

References 37 publications

Modeling forest/agricultural and residential nitrogen budgets and riverine export dynamics in catchments with contrasting anthropogenic impacts in eastern China between 1980–2010

Modeling forest/agricultural and residential nitrogen budgets and riverine export dynamics in catchments with contrasting anthropogenic impacts in eastern China between 1980–2010

The Potential Impacts of Climate Change Factors on Freshwater Eutrophication: Implications for Research and Countermeasures of Water Management in China

Using a map-based assessment tool for the development of cost-effective WFD river basin action programmes in a changing climate

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