Climate change and the opportunity cost of conflict

Abstract

A growing empirical literature associates climate anomalies with increased risk of violent conflict. This association has been portrayed as a bellwether of future societal instability as the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events are predicted to increase. This paper investigates the theoretical foundation of this claim. A seminal microeconomic model of opportunity costs—a mechanism often thought to drive climate–conflict relationships—is extended by considering realistic changes in the distribution of climate-dependent agricultural income. Results advise caution in using empirical associations between short-run climate anomalies and conflicts to predict the effect of sustained shifts in climate regimes: Although war occurs in bad years, conflict may decrease if agents expect more frequent bad years. Theory suggests a nonmonotonic relation between climate variability and conflict that emerges as agents adapt and adjust their behavior to the new income distribution. We identify 3 measurable statistics of the income distribution that are each unambiguously associated with conflict likelihood. Jointly, these statistics offer a unique signature to distinguish opportunity costs from competing mechanisms that may relate climate anomalies to conflict.

Climate variability, crop and conflict: Exploring the impacts of spatial concentration in agricultural production

“…warm spells, droughts) have a heterogeneous effect on crop production across locations, leading to a disproportionate harvest decrease in some regions compared to others. Spatially heterogeneous crop failures will disproportionately restrain local populations’ access to food, reduce rural households’ means of sustenance, induce peaks in food prices (Arezki & Brueckner, 2014) which reduce consumers’ purchasing power (Berazneva & Lee, 2013), and affect agricultural income (Roche et al, 2020), all in all leading to a heavier deterioration of the local livelihood in some regions, while others are relatively better off. The relative deprivation induced by a heterogeneous livelihood impairment and shifts in food entitlements will in turn (a) foster grievances, especially when intertwining with extant societal fractures (Heslin, 2020) or ethnic exclusion (Ide, Kristensen & Bartuseviĉius, 2021), (b) trigger resource competition and deliberate efforts to deny adversaries’ access to harvests (Linke & Ruether, 2021), and (c) decrease the opportunity cost of conflicts for the poor and thereby motivate the use of collective violence and increase the predisposition to armed conflict (Pinstrup-Andersen & Shimokawa, 2008).…”

“…Climate shocks can not only affect food supply and demand; they can also increase the variance of agricultural incomes (Roche et al, 2020) and induce spikes in food prices which destabilize the agricultural labor market and reduce consumers’ purchasing power (Swinnen & Squicciarini, 2012).…”

Assessment on the Effectiveness of Urban Stormwater Management

“…Along with increasingly frequent extreme climate events caused by climate change [63,64], the combination of urban stormwater management and habitat eco-restoration in order to enhance the capacity for dealing with sudden-onset disasters is a crucial strategy for alleviating the impact of urban rainstorm floods. Site-scale field experiments in combination with water-scale scenario simulations will help determine reasonable GI design parameters [41].…”

Assessment on the Effectiveness of Urban Stormwater Management

“…Along with increasingly frequent extreme climate events caused by climate change [61,62], the combination of urban stormwater management and habitat eco-restoration in order to enhance the capacity for dealing with sudden-on-set disasters is a crucial strategy for alleviating the impact of urban rainstorm floods. Site-scale field experiments in combination with water-scale scenario simulations will help determine reasonable GI design parameters [40].…”