Climate change and modelled biome representation in Canada's national park system: implications for system planning and park mandates

Abstract

AimThe study examined the potential for change in biome representation within Canada's national park system under multiple climate change scenarios and subsequent potential vulnerabilities in Parks Canada policy and planning frameworks. LocationThe study was conducted for Canada's 39 national parks. MethodsThe vegetation change scenarios were based on modelling results from the BIOME3 and MAPSS equilibrium process-based global vegetation models (GVM), run with multiple doubled-CO 2 climate change scenarios. The six vegetation distribution scenarios were calculated at 0.5 ° latitude-longitude resolution and the boundaries of 39 national parks superimposed in a geographic information system (GIS). Park management plans and other planning documents were also reviewed as part of the analysis. ResultsThe proportional distribution of biomes in Canada's national park system was very similar (within 3% of area for each biome) using BIOME3 and MAPSS under the current climate. Regardless of the GVM and climate change scenario used, the modelling results suggest the potential for substantial change in the biome representation in Canada's national park system. In five of six vegetation scenarios, a novel biome type appeared in more than half of the national parks and greater than 50% of all vegetation grid boxes changed biome type. The proportional representation of tundra and taiga/tundra in the national park system declined in each of the vegetation scenarios, while more southerly biomes (temperate forests and savanna/woodland) increased (in some scenarios doubling to quadrupling). Results for boreal forest varied among the climate change scenarios. A range of potential vulnerabilities in existing policy and planning frameworks were identified, including the national park system plan, individual park objectives, and fire and exotic species management plans. ConclusionsClimate change represents an unprecedented challenge to Parks Canada and its ability to achieve its conservation mandate as presently legislated. Research is needed not only on ecosystem responses to climate change, but also on the capacity of conservation systems and agencies to adapt to climate change.

Long‐term vegetation changes in a temperate forest impacted by climate change

“…We documented far-reaching effects of climate change on protected wilderness lands, affirming that areas once set-aside for conservation may be insufficient for species preservation in a changing climate (Heller and Zavaleta 2009). Given expected climate change in the current century, many vegetation types and individual species may lose representation in protected areas (Scott et al 2002, Burns et al 2003, Araú jo et al 2004. Effective conservation strategies require understanding the changing plant community dynamics and assessing habitat where species are more likely to survive on both managed and protected lands.…”

Climate change and protected area policy and planning in Canada

“…Scott and Suffling (2002), Scott et al (2002), and can be consulted for additional information and specific case studies.…”

“…Each of Canada's national parks, for example, is responsible for protecting ecosystems representative of the natural region within which it is located. For example, the stated purpose of Prince Albert National Park is to, "Protect for all time the ecological integrity of a natural area of Canadian significance representative of the southern boreal plains and plateaux …" All six vegetation change scenarios examined by Scott et al (2002) projected the eventual loss of boreal forest in this park, suggesting that the park's mandate would be unsustainable in the long term. Furthermore, the decision to reintroduce natural fire regimes in ecotonal parks like Prince Albert National Park, where vegetation models project a shift from boreal forest to grasslands, would hasten the transition to grassland communities and therefore be ostensibly in conflict with the current park purpose.…”

“…As Scott et al (2002) observed, research on ecosystem impacts and the conservation implications of climate change has for the most part remained outside of the institutional contexts of the organizations responsible for the management of parks and protected areas. Comparatively few climate change studies have examined biophysical impacts in existing protected areas and even fewer have explicitly examined the implications for protected area policy and management frameworks.…”

A structured decision-making approach to climate change adaptation in the forest sector

“…Parks and protected areas, which provide valued recreation opportunities and serve important conservation and heritage aims, may face particular challenges if the maintenance of native species and ecosystems is not possible in a fixed location (Scott et al 2002). Perhaps most overlooked are the potential effects on the ecosystem services provided by Canada's forests, including air and water purification, wildlife habitat, medicinal plants, nutrient cycling, and erosion control.…”