Climate Change and Its Impact on Brown Bear Distribution in Iran

Abstract

Climate change is one of the threats in the recent century, affecting biodiversity directly and indirectly. Modeling the patterns of species distribution is one of useful tools for predicting the impacts of climate change on endangered species. Brown bear (Ursus arctos) plays an important role as a focal species in mountainous ecosystems. This study was aims to investigate the effects of future climate changes on the distribution of this species using an ensemble modeling method in R-software. For this purpose five algorithms including MAXENT, RF, MARS, GAM, GLM and BRT were used to predict the distribution of the species in the present climatic conditions as well as in the 2050s and 2070s. The results showed that temperature and precipitation were two main factors in the distribution of brown bears in Iran. Investigating the distribution of the brown bear in the future showed that suitability of its habitat will decrease in the western and central parts and increase in the northern parts. So a shift toward higher altitude will be expected for brown bear in the future. Therefore, in this condition it is imperative to upgrade the extent of protected areas for better conservation of brown bear.