Climate Change and its Effect on the Energy Production from Renewable Sources – A Case Study in Mediterranean Region

Abstract

In terms of climate forecasting, the Mediterranean region is among the most difficult. It is correlated with the five significant subtropical high pressure belts of the oceans and is symbolized by dry and hot summer and cold and rainy winter. Due to its location in the area, Albania is particularly susceptible to climatic changes. It has been noted that summertime sees the greatest temperature increases. More intense heat waves that stay longer and occur more frequently are anticipated in the eastern Mediterranean. The seasonal patterns of precipitation have not changed, but the amount of rain has become more intense. The effects of climate change have drawn attention to various renewable energy sources, including solar and wind power. In this study, the changes and prospective in average temperature, rainfall, humidity, CO 2 emission and their impact in energy production were investigated. Several different models such as Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average method; Prophet algorithm; Elastic-Net Regularized Generalized Linear Model; Random Forest Regression models; Prophet Boost algorithm; have been built for the study and prediction of each variable. The appropriate models are used to determine the anticipated values of the indicators for a period of four years. The prediction shows an increase in CO 2 emission which leads to a decrease in energy production by hydropower. These findings suggest the use of other renewable sources for energy production in the country and the Mediterranean region.