Climate change and health in Kuwait: temperature and mortality projections under different climatic scenarios

Abstract

Background–It is uncertain what climate change could bring to populations and countries in the hot desert environment of the Arabian Peninsula. Not only because they are already hot, countries in this region also have unique demographic profiles, with migrant populations potentially more vulnerable and constituting a large share of the population. In Kuwait, two-thirds of the population are migrant workers and record-high temperatures are already common. Objective–We quantified the temperature-related mortality burdens in Kuwait in the mid- (2050-2059) and end-century (2090-2099) decades under moderate (SSP2-4.5) and extreme (SSP5-8.5) climate change scenarios. Methods–We fitted time series distributed lag non-linear models to estimate the baseline temperature-mortality relationship which was then applied to future daily mean temperatures from the latest available climate models to estimate decadal temperature-mortality burdens under the two scenarios. Results–By mid-century, the average temperature in Kuwait is predicted to increase by 1.80°C (SSP2-4.5) to 2.57°C (SSP5-8.5), compared to a 2000-2009 baseline. By the end of the century, we could see an increase of up to 5.54°C. In a moderate scenario, climate change would increase heat-related mortality by 5.1% (95% empirical confidence intervals [eCI]: 0.8, 9.3) by end-century, whereas an extreme scenario increases heat-related mortality by 11.7% (2.7, 19.0). Heat-related mortality for non-Kuwaiti migrant workers could increase by 15.1% (4.6, 22.8). For every 100 deaths in Kuwait, 13.6 (-3.6, 25.8) could be attributed to heat driven by climate change by the end of the century. Conclusion–Climate change induced warming, even under more optimistic mitigation scenarios, may markedly increase heat-related mortality in Kuwait. Those who are already vulnerable, like migrant workers, could borne a larger impact from climate change.

Burden of fine air pollution on mortality in the desert climate of Kuwait

“…One possible explanation could be an increased exposure to outdoor air pollution among adults, potentially resulting from outdoor work activities; however, we acknowledge that this is speculative and further research is needed to confirm this hypothesis. Second, the existing literature in Kuwait shows a clear health disparity between Kuwaitis and the non-Kuwaiti migrant workers [31][32][33][34][35]. For example, examining the effects of dust storm compared to non-dust storm days on mortality showed an effect measure modification by nationality in Kuwait where non-Kuwaitis were more vulnerable [15].…”

Climate change exacerbates the compounding of heat stress and flooding in the mid‐latitudes

“…Heat stress itself is responsible for major negative impacts on human health (e.g., Alahmad et al, 2022;Chapman et al, 2022;Fan et al, 2022;Kovats & Hajat, 2008;Zander et al, 2015). There are several examples of catastrophic heat stress events that occurred in the past, such as the one that hit Chicago in 1995, resulting in more than 700 fatalities (Dematte et al, 1998).…”

Gulf Cooperation Council countries' water and climate research to strengthen UN's SDGs 6 and 13

“…A recent study indicated that there has been an increase in temperature of up to 1.9 °C during the last 50 years [ 33 ]. Being the hottest region in the world and fulfilling its water demands by non-conventional means (mostly desalination), adverse impacts of climate change are still expected despite GCC's resilience to extreme conditions and environmental security if the global society fails to curb global temperature rise [ [33] , [34] , [35] , [36] ]. Thus, water and climate scenarios may challenge the GCC countries to achieve SDGs 6 and 13.…”