Climate Change and Growth Rate of Food Grain Output in Nigeria (1970-2010)

Abstract

The study examined climate change and growth rate of food grain output in Nigeria from 1970-2010. Time series data of maize, rice, millet, sorghum, wheat, temperature and rainfall were used for the study. Data analysis involved the use of Descriptive Statistics and the annual additive series (Trend) Analysis measured in years by getting the annual average of parameters which depict the factual position of climate change by variations of the weather parameters over time. Findings showed that the preferred weather parameters (rainfall and temperature), and the food grain (maize, rice, millet, sorghum, wheat) exhibited significant changes in trend of growth during the 1970-2010 period. Rainfall grew at the compound growth rate of 5.3 % more than temperature per annum. The compound growth rate of maize, millet, sorghum, and wheat output were less than the compound growth rate of rice by 0.9%, 6.5%, 5.9% and 6.4% respectively, and the compound growth rate of maize, rice, sorghum, and wheat outputs were more than the Original Research Articlecompound growth rate of millet output by 5.6%, 6.5%, 0.6% and 0.1% respectively. Acceleration was witnessed in the growth rate of temperature, rainfall, sorghum, and millet; deceleration for wheat, while stagnation was witnessed in the growth rate of rice and maize over the 1970-2010 periods. There was significant difference in the average growth rate of rainfall and each of maize, millet, sorghum and wheat yield; and no significant difference between rainfall and rice. There was no significant difference also in the average growth rate of temperature and each of maize, millet, sorghum and wheat yield; but there was significant difference between temperature and rice. The conclusion of the study is that food grain yield was influenced by rainfall and temperature. It is therefore recommended that if increase in food grain production is to be sustained, proper irrigation and drainage should be applied.

Influence of Climate Change on the Growth Rates and Direction of Growth of Outputs of Selected Food Grains in Nigeria (1981-2020)

“…Food shortage is consequently linked with climate change. In contrast, it has been reported that temperature has no linkage with agricultural output (Igwe et al, 2014). Food shortages as a result of population increases are more obtained in Nigeria than climate change.…”

“…Climate change has brought with it changes in weather patterns that can have serious repercussions for all of us, upsetting seasonal cycles, harming ecosystems and water supply, affecting agricultural farming systems and food production, and also causing sea levels to rise (Igwe et al, 2014). Climate change is now a subject of worldwide concern.…”

“…The problem is expected to be more severe in Nigeria, where current information is the poorest, technological change has been the slowest and the domestic economies depends heavily on agriculture. Igwe et al (2014) defined climate change as change of climate which is directly attributed or indirectly attributed to human activity that alters the composition of the global and/or regional atmosphere and which is in addition to natural climate variability observed over comparable time periods. Climate plays a dominant role in agriculture having a direct impact on the productivity of physical production factors such as soil's moisture and fertility.…”

“…Using regression analysis to examine drought as factor affecting arable crops output, it has been shown that drought causes decrease in output of food crops. Igwe et al (2014) recognized that drought is a major cause of crop failure in rain-fed dependent agrarian community. FAO (2017) also established that, severe food shortages were due to drought situations.…”