Climate Change and Food Security Prioritizing Indices: Applying Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Social Network Analysis (SNA)

Abstract

Food security and climate change are multidimensional issues. Therefore, a lack of knowledge about the most essential variables made these concepts more complex for decision-making and highlighted the need for credible decision support methods. Here, we aim to develop an accurate tool by using the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method to explore the priority indicator of food security under climate change in Iran and social network analysis (SNA) to support decisions. The following steps were conducted for the AHP approach: a literature review, a Likert questionnaire and experts’ interviews for variable selection and the variables’ weight determination and prioritization by pairwise comparison questionnaire, designed based on the hierarchy matrix of the criteria and sub-criteria of food security and climate change. The SNA was employed to understand the robustness of the informants’ points of view for indicator selection. After the analysis, 61 criteria were extracted. Sustainability was the important criterion, weighted 0.248. The most important sub-criteria (indicators): groundwater sources, household income, underweight adolescent ratio, food wastage and an annual average of precipitation, weighted 0.095, 0.091, 0.125, 0.227 and 0.236, respectively. The SNA showed that professionals with academic origins focused on the sustainability component. The AHP tool is a credible technique to distinguish the most important criteria. The results might be employed to estimate or predict food security under climate change and simplify decision making in Iran.

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