Climate Change and Food Production in Nigeria: Implication for Food Security in Nigeria

Abstract

<strong></strong><p>Food production in Nigeria is largely dependent on natural environmental resources like rainfall, temperature and relative humidity. This study examined the impact of some of these climatic variables on food production in Nigeria from 1975 to 2010. Secondary time series data obtained from FAOSTAT (Food and Agriculture Organization statistics) and Nigerian Meteorological Agency were used for the study. The data were analyzed using some econometric tools such as Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) test, Johansen Test and Vector Error Correction (VEC) Estimates. The ADF test reveals that relative humidity integrated at order zero level while rainfall and temperature and agricultural output were stationary after differencing at level 1 thus showing that the variables had relationship. The results of the Johansen co-integrated test revealed that there is one co-integrating equation at 5% showing a co-integrating relationship between agricultural output and the climatic variables. The Vector Error Correction Estimates indicated that rainfall was positively significant at 5% to food production on the short run indicating that vagaries in climate especially rainfall affected food production and output in Nigeria. It was recommended, therefore, that measure that could help to mitigate the adverse effects of inadequate rainfall e.g. irrigation, drought resistant crops varieties among others should be put in place by the government. Farmers should equally be sensitized and trained in the area of adaptation and mitigation of the effect of climate change as this will go a long way to ameliorate large scale failure in food production in the country.</p>

The Impact of Climate Change Induced Extreme Events on Agriculture and Food Security: A Review on Nigeria

“…Similarly, food prices are usually low during harvest periods, but flooding alters this seasonal pattern by causing a rise in food prices as a result of crop failure, corroborating the findings of [48] flood events occur mostly between July and October, the harvest season for staples like yam in south eastern Nigeria in the study by [50] show that flooding has negative effects on food security in various aspects. [11] recommended that measures and actions that can assist to alleviate the Climate-smart agricultural practices must be implemented to ensure that agricultural productions are not affected by the occurrence of extreme events.…”

“…Climate can affect the quantities and types of food produced as well as production-related income. Similarly,[11] opined that the climate change phenomenon will affect agriculture in a number of ways including changes in rainfall pattern. It should be noted that there are more uncertainties in the prediction of the beginning of rainy season for farmers.…”

“…In general, climate changes have the potential to lead to large disruptions in agricultural sector in the state and have adverse impacts on food security[41]. According to[42], Climate variability and change have a straight and repeatedly inverse influence on the quantity and quality of agricultural production [11]. stated that Nigeria is not left out of effects of climate change especially with the flooding in the country in 2013 when several hundred of thousands of farmland/crops were being destroyed.…”

“…Climate change and food security are related because climate change affects the climatic conditions responsible for optimum food production. However, research shows climate change will not equally affect all countries, and will likely have the biggest impact in equatorial regions such as sub-Saharan Africa due to its geographical location[10] [11]. This means that countries already struggling with food security are likely to struggle harder in the future if urgent actions and measures are not taken to mitigate climate change and adapt to climate-smart…”

Can Climate Change Affect Agricultural Output in Nigeria?

“…1% change in rainfall will lead to about 3.5% increase in agricultural output. Idumah et. al (2016) in their study also found that rainfall had positive relationship with agricultural output but in the short run.…”