Climate Change and Economic Growth Prospects for Malawi: An Uncertainty Approach

Abstract

Typescript prepared by Lisa Winkler at UNU-WIDER.UNU-WIDER gratefully acknowledges the financial contributions to the research programme from the governments of Denmark, Finland, Sweden, and the United Kingdom.The World Institute for Development Economics Research (WIDER) was established by the United Nations University (UNU) as its first research and training centre and started work in Helsinki, Finland in 1985. The Institute undertakes applied research and policy analysis on structural changes affecting the developing and transitional economies, provides a forum for the advocacy of policies leading to robust, equitable, and environmentally sustainable growth, and promotes capacity strengthening and training in the field of economic and social policy-making. Work is carried out by staff researchers and visiting scholars in Helsinki and through networks of collaborating scholars and institutions around the world.

Climate and southern Africa's water–energy–food nexus

“…Historical climate variability imposes high costs on low-income agrarian economies 53 and climate change is likely to have adverse effects on food security 54 . Long-term changes in annual precipitation and temperature may have less impact than historical variability until 2050 4,55 . Historical data show substantial variability in smallholder farm yields and incomes.…”

Conservation strategies to adapt to projected climate change impacts in Malawi

“…Poppy et al (2014) conducted similar studies about the potential effects of climate change on food security in Malawi. Although Poppy et al (2014) found similar trends as Arndt et al (2014), Poppy et al (2014) found with their simulations and analysis that the effects of climate change could occur sooner and the negative impacts could be much greater. Poppy et al (2014) reported that this "perfect storm" will contribute to the generation of a situation where close to 100% of the population of Malawi is undernourished by 2030.…”

“…Increasing the current maize yields and maintaining these increased yields in the future is important, especially since the population of Malawi is expected to double by 2035. Arndt et al (2014) conducted an analysis of future climate change impacts on the economic growth of Malawi. Their analysis included a climate, biophysical, and economic model to assess the potential effects of climate change on economic growth.…”

“…Their analysis included a climate, biophysical, and economic model to assess the potential effects of climate change on economic growth. The analysis by Arndt et al (2014) strongly suggests that during the next two decades the economic growth for Malawi will not be affected, but that by 2030, and certainly after 2040, climate change will significantly impact Malawi's economic growth. They projected that due to climate change average maize yields in Malawi will decline by 2% during the next three to four decades.…”

“…The impacts of drought and changes in temperature could lower the maize yields an average of at least 20% across Africa (Auffhammer 2011;Lobell et al 2011). Arndt et al (2014) reported that since policies take some time to develop and implement, it is important to start applying policies now that will contribute to climate change adaptation; the next two decades for Malawi will be critical, and the country will have to start looking for policies that could help it adapt to future changes. Poppy et al (2014) conducted similar studies about the potential effects of climate change on food security in Malawi.…”