Climate Change and Decision Support Using the Computer Tool Instat for El Ganzra Region, Morocco

Abstract

If the scarcity of water resources and their limitation is a characteristic of the climate of Morocco, this phenomenon seems to know a distinct accentuation during the last decades. But, on the other hand, the scarcity of this resource and the drought are the main constraints of agricultural production; the situation then is more alarming. Although scientists in the region have developed many technologies to cope with these environmental problems, the difference between the yields achievable by farmers and the potential yields generally remains huge in rainfed and irrigated areas.This paper develops the problem of rainfed agriculture in the Khemisset region, El Ganzra site, in the constraining context of climate change and natural resources degradation. Indeed, several measures are necessary to cope with these climate changes; therefore, we propose a method of agro-climatic analysis of the first significant rains. Our investigations, which are part of the decision support approach, are based on choosing the suitable period for sowing cereals using the "InStat" tool. The method used is based on a quantitative approach, allowing us to study the Spatio-temporal variability of precipitation and the analysis of drought intensity on the site. Consequently, the modelling makes it possible to propose scenarios to farmers regarding sowing dates and crop selection at the appropriate time.

Agriculture and Economic Development of the Ait Werra Tribe During the French Colonialism Period and Its Local Characteristics (1912-1956) Within the Middle Atlas Region of Morocco

“…The climate of Morocco is Mediterranean in the north, becoming more extreme in the interior; in the south, hot, dry desert; rain is rare; cold offshore air currents produce fog and heavy dew (Moukhliss et al, 2022;Elfanne et al, 2022). The climate of El Kssiba is temperate and rainy, with some years receiving more than 1000 mm of rainfall.…”

“…Agricultural land is about 67.5%, arable land, 17.5%; permanent crops, 2.9%; permanent pasture, 47.1%; forest, 11.5%; other: 21%. The most significant population density in Morocco is concentrated along the Atlantic and Mediterranean coasts, with numerous densely populated urban areas dispersed across the Atlas Mountains (Moukhliss et al, 2022;Elfanne et al, 2022;Sabri et al, 2022;Abubakar, 2016;Abubakar, 2008).…”

“…Nevertheless, the current reality shows that many of these youths face unemployment due to a disparity in job creation, which has not kept pace with the expanding working-age population. Those who do find employment are often engaged in the informal sector, where job security and benefits are typically limited (Moukhliss et al, 2022;Elfanne et al, 2022;Abubakar, 2016;Abubakar, 2008).…”

“…Age structure Based on the reports available at the national statistics, but also to the publications of various authors (Moukhliss et al, 2022;Elfanne et al, 2022;Abubakar, 2016;Abubakar, 2008), population with the age of 0-14 years is 26.01% (male 4,919,266/female 4,722,463); 15-64 years: 65.92% (male 12,124,939/female 12,311,552); 65 years and over: 8.06% (2023 est.) (male 1,455,355/female 1,533,845).…”