Climate Change and Cross-State Islamist Terrorism in Nigeria

Abstract

This paper considers if increases in temperature and decreases in rain associated with climate change are a potential driver of Islamist terrorism across states in Nigeria. With state-level Islamist terrorism event, temperature, rainfall and sociodemographic data for Nigeria, we estimate latent variable and count data specifications of the relationship between the number of Islamist terrorism events and climactic variation in temperature and rainfall motivated by how the psychological costs of conflict can be decreased by increases in outdoor ambient temperature and decreases in rainfall. Our parameter estimates reveal that increases in temperature and decreases in rainfall increase the likelihood of Islamist terrorism in Nigeria. This suggests that global warming and reduced rainfall induced by climate change are potential drivers of terrorism in Sub-Saharan Africa, and policy interventions designed to abate anthropogenic climate change can reduce violent conflict that is harmful for economic growth and development.

Fighting Terrorism: Empirics on Policy Harmonisation

“…Another stream of the literature has been assessing channels by which political violence and terrorism can be mitigated. Some recently documented mechanisms have included: respect of the rule of law (Choi, ); education (Brockhoff et al ., ) by means of bilingualism (Costa et al ., ) and lifelong learning (Asongu and Nwachukwu, ); control of corruption being the most effective tool in the fight against crimes and conflicts (Asongu and Kodila‐Tedika, ); strategies based on assessing terrorism attitudes (Gardner, ); terrorism and capital flight (Efobi and Asongu, ) the role of geopolitical fluctuations (Straus, ); the influence of global warming (Price and Elu, ); military mechanisms (Feridun and Shahbaz, ); press freedom and publicity (Hoffman et al ., ) and external as well as internal transparency (Bell et al ., ).…”

Fighting terrorism in Africa: evidence from bundling and unbundling institutions

“…African-specific literature has focused on understanding: geopolitical fluctuations (Straus 2012); poverty and lack of politico-economic freedom (Barros et al 2008); competition in military companies in the swift termination of conflicts (Akcinaroglu and Radziszewski 2013); the role of global warming (Price and Elu 2016) and exploratory studies on the African Union's role in fighting terrorism (Ewi and Aning 2006). Moreover, the literature on the role of governance on terrorism has either been skewed on the effect of democracy for the most part (see Lee 2013;Savun and Phillips 2009) or oriented toward a few specific dimensions like the rule of law (Choi 2010) and transparency (Bell et al 2014).…”

Conditional linkages between iron ore exports, foreign aid and terrorism

“…transparency (Bell et al, 2014); rule of law (Choi, 2010); learning (Brockhoff et al, 2014), especially in terms of bilingualism (Costa et al, 2008) and lifelong experiences (Asongu & Nwachukwu, 2016); press freedom or positive use of media (Hoffman et al, 2013); best governance tools in the fight against conflicts (Asongu & Kodila-Tedika, 2016); understanding behavioural intentions motivating terrorism (Gardner, 2007); use of military tactics and strategies (Feridun & Shahbaz, 2010); role of global warming (Price & Elu, 2016) and horizons for common policies in the prediction of future regional conflicts (Asongu & Nwachukwu, 2015a) and battle against terrorism (Asongu & Nwachukwu, 2015b).…”