Climate Change and Agricultural Productivity in West Africa

Iheonu, Chimere; Asongu, Simplice; Emeka, Ekene Thankgod; Orjiakor, Ebuka Christian

doi:10.2139/ssrn.4235549

Cited by 1 publication

(1 citation statement)

References 28 publications

(38 reference statements)

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“…Approximately 95% of the region's fertile land is used for agriculture, which employs 65% of the workforce and generates 30%−70% of the region's Gross Domestic Product (Blanc, 2012;Akumaga and Tarhule, 2018). Climate change has caused nearly all countries in West Africa to experience a rise in mean annual temperature over the years (Iheonu et al, 2022). For example, Aziz and Obuobie (2017) found a considerable rise in the annual average temperature of 0.9 • C in the Black Volta Basin part of Burkina Faso and anticipated variation in average rainfall volume (ranging from −16 and +6%) for the late 21st century (2050-2075) under the Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 scenario.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Potential consequences for rising temperature trends in the Oti River Basin, West Africa

Kwawuvi,

Mama,

Agodzo

et al. 2023

Front. Clim.

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IntroductionOne of the ways that climate change manifest itself is through temperature changes. Though the Oti River basin has been grappling with drought incidents, there has been little or no emphasis on analyzing temperature fluctuations in the basin. This study aimed to analyze the mean annual and seasonal temperature for the observed (1981–2010) and future periods (2021–2050) over the Oti River basin.MethodsHistorical data were obtained from meteorological stations and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Prediction of Worldwide Energy Resources (NASA POWER). Data quality assessment was conducted, and the NASA POWER temperature was validated against the stations' temperature. Ensemble of eight models acquired from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX–Africa) under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), were used for the future projection. The mean annual and seasonal temperatures were analyzed for 1981–2010 and 2021–2050 (under RCPs 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios). The Modified Mann–Kendall test was used for trend analysis at 5% significant level.Results and discussionIn the near-future, temperature is anticipated to increase at the mean monthly scale in the ranges of +0.88°C in October to +2.65°C in January under the RCP4.5 scenario, while the RCP8.5 predicts increases between +2.71°C in July and +6.48°C in January. The annual mean temperature change for the entire basin is projected at +1.47°C (RCP4.5) and +4.2°C (RCP8.5). For the rainy season period, the RCP4.5 projects annual mean temperature changes in the ranges of −0.72°C and +1.52°C while the RCP8.5 predicts changes between +1.06°C and +4.45°C. Concerning the dry season period, the anticipated changes in the annual mean temperature under the RCP4.5 would range from −0.43°C to +2.78°C whereas that of RCP8.5 would be between +1.97°C and 7.25°C. The Modified Mann–Kendall test revealed significantly increasing trends for temperature projections in the basin under both the RCPs 4.5 and 8.5 in the basin. The study provides significant contribution to the comprehension of temperature patterns in time and space which is necessary for the sustenance of rainfed agriculture and water resources within the basin.

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