Climate change and adaptation in agriculture: Evidence from US cropping patterns

Cui, Xiaomeng

doi:10.1016/j.jeem.2020.102306

Cited by 73 publications

(59 citation statements)

References 42 publications

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“…The findings in this article also build on the emerging literature on measuring agricultural adaptation to climate change. Specifically, finding induced adjustments in growing seasons complements previous studies that explicitly measure other behavioral adaptations, including crop choice, planting and harvesting decisions, double cropping, and input adjustments (e.g., Seo and Mendelsohn 2008; Kawasaki 2018; Cui 2020a, b; Aragón, Oteiza, and Rud 2021; Jagnani et al 2021). The evidence of a warming‐induced shift in growing season is also useful in explaining those documented acreage expansion and increased double cropping that would not have occurred without warming.…”

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confidence: 63%

Adapting Agriculture to Climate Change through Growing Season Adjustments: Evidence from Corn in China

Cui¹,

Xie²

2021

American J Agri Economics

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Recent studies have shown that climate change will impose severe challenges on agriculture with profound implications. Although some hypothetical simulations have suggested that an optimal re‐arrangement of the growing season can substantially mitigate yield losses under future climate, no causal estimate has been provided on quantifying the extent to which farmers are adapting through growing‐season adjustments. Using a novel microlevel data with detailed crop progress information in China over 1993–2013, we show that both planting dates and growing season lengths significantly respond to contemporaneous temperature and precipitation. Our estimates suggest that, for a median site in our sample, the adaptive behavior in growing season adjustments can lead to a two to six days earlier planting date and another three to six days shorter growing season by the end of this century. These induced adjustments can avoid up to 9% of the crop damages caused by climate change. However, our empirical analysis does not find clear evidence of long‐run response or accompanied input adjustments, suggesting potential for developing policies and tools to further aid the adaptive process.

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confidence: 63%

Adapting Agriculture to Climate Change through Growing Season Adjustments: Evidence from Corn in China

Cui¹,

Xie²

2021

American J Agri Economics

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“…The advances of agroclimatic research due to computational models and high accuracy datasets yield important results for the near-future atmospheric conditions over the agriculture areas. However, the results are not easily utilized by the agricultural community as an aftermath of their complexity on implementation and interpretation [41][42][43][44]. As global and regional food production is directly affected by climate change consequences, the research community must grow and share accurate and easy-to-use information and tools [42][43][44][45].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatiotemporal Estimation of the Olive and Vine Cultivations’ Growing Degree Days in the Balkans Region

et al. 2021

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Olive and vine cultivations are two of the most important crops in Europe, yielding high quality and value food products. The climate change over the Balkans may elevate the agroecological pressure for the established crops and shift their cultivations areas. One of the widely-used agroclimatic indices is the growing degree days (GDD) which accumulates the necessary thermal units for the selected crops. Despite the advances on the agroclimatic research, there are few available methods for spatiotemporal estimation of this useful index. So, this research is focused on the construction of simple and reliable equations for the calculation and projection of olive and vine cultivations’ GDD over the Balkans. The models’ input parameters are the time, the altitude, the distance from the seashore, and the latitude. Its assembly is made by the extracted spatial data, combined with the Agri4Cast dataset for the period of 1980 to 2018 incorporating the regional climate change trend. The results indicate that the most influential parameter is the time, followed by the latitude, for both cultivations. According to the projections, as quantified by GDD, a vast sprawl of olive and vine cultivation areas will have been formed to the northern parts of the studied area. To be more precise, the viticulture could expand spatially by 28.8% (of the Balkans area) by 2040, and by 15.1% to 2060, when the olive cultivations’ area could sprawl 23.9% by 2040 and 20.3% by 2060.

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“…Some scholars who have studied wheat cultivation in the United States believe that the effects of climate change are overestimated [34]. At the same time, other scholars believe that climate change is an important factor in promoting agricultural restructuring and expansion [35]. The divergence of scholars on the impact of climate change indicates the necessity of in-depth research on the impact of extreme climate shocks on GAD.…”

Section: Literature Review and Theoretical Analysis 21 Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Extreme Climate Shocks and Green Agricultural Development: Evidence from the 2008 Snow Disaster in China

Feng

Zhao

2021

IJERPH

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Extreme climate shocks cause agricultural yield reductions and increase long-term climate risk, altering farmers’ long-term production decisions and affecting green agricultural development (GAD). We take the 2008 snow disaster in China as an extreme climate shock, calculate the GAD index by the entropy weighting method, and use the difference-in-difference method to study the extreme climate shock’s impact on GAD. The results show that: (1) Extreme climate shocks are detrimental to GAD, with the snow disaster decreasing China’s GAD level by 3.07%. (2) The impacts of extreme climate shocks are heterogeneous across climate and economic zones, with greater impact in humid and developed regions. (3) Extreme climate shocks affect GAD mainly by reducing farmers’ willingness to cultivate, and increasing energy consumption, fertilizer, and pesticide input. (4) Extreme climate shocks do not reduce agricultural yields in the long run. Still, they reduce the total value of agricultural production and decrease the quality of agricultural products expressed in terms of unit value. The findings of this study have policy implications for developing countries in coping with extreme climate shocks and promoting GAD.

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Climate change and adaptation in agriculture: Evidence from US cropping patterns

Cited by 73 publications

References 42 publications

Adapting Agriculture to Climate Change through Growing Season Adjustments: Evidence from Corn in China

Adapting Agriculture to Climate Change through Growing Season Adjustments: Evidence from Corn in China

Spatiotemporal Estimation of the Olive and Vine Cultivations’ Growing Degree Days in the Balkans Region

Extreme Climate Shocks and Green Agricultural Development: Evidence from the 2008 Snow Disaster in China

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