Climate change accelerates range expansion of the invasive non-native species, the Pacific oyster,<i>Crassostrea gigas</i>

King, Nathan G.; Wilmes, Sophie B.; Smyth, David; Tinker, Jonathan; Robins, Peter; Thorpe, Jamie; Jones, Laurence; Malham, Shelagh K.

doi:10.1093/icesjms/fsaa189

Cited by 34 publications

(21 citation statements)

References 77 publications

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“…CO6 is a well-established and evaluated model, with a wide range of uses. It is used as a research model, as the basis of the Met Office operational 6-day NWS forecasts (and delivered to CMEMS 3 , Tonani et al, 2019), the CMEMS v4 (and v5) reanalyses (also delivered to CMEMS, Renshaw et al, 2019), and in climate research (e.g., Hermans et al, 2020;Tinker et al, 2020;King et al, 2021;Nagy et al, 2021).…”

Section: Nemo Coastal Ocean Version 6 (Co6)mentioning

confidence: 99%

Towards Winter Seasonal Predictability of the North West European Shelf Seas

Tinker

Hermanson

2021

Front. Mar. Sci.

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We investigate the winter predictability of the North West European shelf seas (NWS), using the Met Office seasonal forecasting system GloSea5 and the Copernicus NWS reanalysis. We assess GloSea5’s representation of NWS climatological winter and its skill at forecasting winter conditions on the NWS. We quantify NWS winter persistence and compare this to the forecast skill. GloSea5 simulates the winter climatology adequately. We find important errors in the residual circulation (particularly in the Irish Sea) that introduce temperature and salinity biases in the Irish Sea, English Channel, and southern North Sea. The GloSea5 winter skill is significant for SST across most of the NWS but is lower in the southern North Sea. Salinity skill is not significant in the regions affected by the circulation errors. There is considerable NWS winter temperature and salinity persistence. GloSea5 exhibits significant predictive skill above this over ∼20% of the NWS, but for most of the NWS this is not the case. Dynamical downscaling is one method to improve the GloSea5 simulation of the NWS and its circulation, which may reduce biases and increase predictive skill. We investigate this approach with a pair of case studies, comparing the winters of 2010/2011 and 2011/2012 (with contrasting temperature and salinity anomalies, and NAO state). While 2 years are insufficient to assess skill, the differences in the simulations are evaluated, and their implications for the NWS winter predictability are considered. The NWS circulation is improved (where it was poor in the GloSea5), allowing more realistic advective pathways for salinity (and temperature) and enhancing their climatological spatial distributions. However, as the GloSea5 SST anomaly is already well simulated, downscaling does not substantially improve this – in other seasons or for other variables, downscaling may add more value. We show that persistence of early winter values provides some predictive skill for the NWS winter SST, and that the GloSea5 system adds modestly to this skill in certain regions. Such information will allow prospective end-users to consider how seasonal forecasts might be useful for their sector, providing the foundation on which marine environmental seasonal forecasts service and community may be developed for the NWS.

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Section: Nemo Coastal Ocean Version 6 (Co6)mentioning

confidence: 99%

Towards Winter Seasonal Predictability of the North West European Shelf Seas

Tinker

Hermanson

2021

Front. Mar. Sci.

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“…In the context of the global climate change with higher average temperatures, M. gigas has fairly good chances of reproducing and forming stable colonies in the Black Sea. A recent study has also demonstrated that the range expansion of the Pacific oyster is driven by climate warming, predicting its presence all along the Northwest European Shelf [7]. Isolated individuals have been constantly found in the Black Sea even since 1989, and in the last 10 years, wild small populations have started to be found along the eastern, northern and western coasts of the Black Sea [9].…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Invasive species in the context of climate change: the case of Magallana Gigas (Thunberg, 1793) in the Black Sea

Krapa¹,

Buhaciuc-Ioniță²,

Ionita³

et al. 2021

Sustainable Use and Protection of Animal World in the Context of Climate Change

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The current climate changes are having a significant impact on species distribution. While some species are affected, others are thriving in these new conditions, expanding their range. This is also the case of some invasive species who seem to benefit from these changes. The invasive Pacific oyster Magallana gigas is among these species. The current situation of the Pacific oyster in the Black Sea is discussed, with new data from the Romanian waters.

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“…gigas proliferation. Their extent is likely to increase even more with climate change, as has been documented along the Northwest European Shelf [ 59 ]. Given the pervasive range extension of this species on a global scale, its spread along the North American west coast seems to be a foregone conclusion.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Mapping oysters on the Pacific coast of North America: A coast-wide collaboration to inform enhanced conservation

et al. 2022

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To conserve coastal foundation species, it is essential to understand patterns of distribution and abundance and how they change over time. We synthesized oyster distribution data across the west coast of North America to develop conservation strategies for the native Olympia oyster (Ostrea lurida), and to characterize populations of the non-native Pacific oyster (Magallana gigas). We designed a user-friendly portal for data entry into ArcGIS Online and collected oyster records from unpublished data submitted by oyster experts and from the published literature. We used the resulting 2,000+ records to examine spatial and temporal patterns and made an interactive web-based map publicly available. Comparing records from pre-2000 vs. post-2000, we found that O. lurida significantly decreased in abundance and distribution, while M. gigas increased significantly. Currently the distribution and abundance of the two species are fairly similar, despite one species being endemic to this region since the Pleistocene, and the other a new introduction. We mapped the networks of sites occupied by oysters based on estimates of larval dispersal distance, and found that these networks were larger in Canada, Washington, and southern California than in other regions. We recommend restoration to enhance O. lurida, particularly within small networks, and to increase abundance where it declined. We also recommend restoring natural biogenic beds on mudflats and sandflats especially in the southern range, where native oysters are currently found most often on riprap and other anthropogenic structures. This project can serve as a model for collaborative mapping projects that inform conservation strategies for imperiled species or habitats.

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Climate change accelerates range expansion of the invasive non-native species, the Pacific oyster,Crassostrea gigas

Cited by 34 publications

References 77 publications

Towards Winter Seasonal Predictability of the North West European Shelf Seas

Towards Winter Seasonal Predictability of the North West European Shelf Seas

Invasive species in the context of climate change: the case of Magallana Gigas (Thunberg, 1793) in the Black Sea

Mapping oysters on the Pacific coast of North America: A coast-wide collaboration to inform enhanced conservation

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