Climate change: A threat to the economic growth of Pakistan

Akram, Naeem; Hamid, Abdul

doi:10.1177/1464993414546976

Cited by 29 publications

(24 citation statements)

References 37 publications

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“…Climate change in the form of increased temperature has reduced cereal yield up to 17% (Lobell et al, 2011). Pakistan is also facing impacts of climate change in different socio-economic sectors (Akram and Hamid, 2015;Ahmad et al, 2017). The warming trend, predicted to be 2-4 • C at the end of century, will drastically affect agriculture (Rasul et al, 2012).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Can Growing Degree Days and Photoperiod Predict Spring Wheat Phenology?

Aslam

Ahmed

Stöckle

et al. 2017

Front. Environ. Sci.

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Wheat (Triticum aestivum) production in the rainfed area of Pothwar Pakistan is extremely vulnerable to high temperature. The expected increase in temperature due to global warming should result in shorter crop life cycles, and thus lower biomass and grain yield. Two major factors control wheat phenological development: temperature and photoperiod. To evaluate wheat development in response to these factors, we conducted experiments that created diverse temperature and daylength conditions by adjusting the crop sowing time. The study was conducted during 2013-14 and 2014-15 using five spring wheat genotypes, four sowing times, at three sites under rainfed management in Pothwar, Pakistan. Wheat crops experienced more cold days with early sowing, but later sowing dates resulted in higher temperatures, especially from anthesis to maturity. These treatments produced large differences in phenology, biomass production, and yield. To investigate whether growing degree days (GDD) and photoperiod algorithms could predict wheat phenology under these changing conditions, GDD was calculated based on the method proposed by Wang and Engel while photoperiod followed the approach introduced in the APSIM crop growth model. GDD was calculated separately and in combination with photoperiod from germination to anthesis. For the grain filling period, only GDD was calculated. The observed and predicted number of days to anthesis and maturity were in good agreement, showing that the combination of GDD and photoperiod algorithms provided good estimations of spring wheat phenology under variable temperature and daylength conditions.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Can Growing Degree Days and Photoperiod Predict Spring Wheat Phenology?

Aslam

Ahmed

Stöckle

et al. 2017

Front. Environ. Sci.

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“…This thermal trend has been observed during three decades beginning in the 1980s and predominantly in the 2000s in Punjab, Pakistan (Wang, Davies, Huang, & Gillies, ). The mean surface temperature has shown a slow annual increase that has impacted the socio‐economic sector of Pakistan (Akram & Hamid, ). The observed mean temperature in Punjab, Pakistan, has increased by 0.78–1.5°C for the past three decades and is expected to increase from 2 to 4°C by the end of 21 century, which could have a significant impact on agricultural production (Ahmad et al., ; Mueller, Gray, & Kosec, ; Rasul, Mahmood, Sadiq, & Khan, ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Quantification of the impacts of climate warming and crop management on canola phenology in Punjab, Pakistan

Ahmad

Abbas

Fatima

et al. 2017

J Agronomy Crop Science

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Yield is influenced by the length of the growing season, which is affected by weather conditions and management practices of a crop, including sowing dates and shifting of cultivars. It is necessary to understand the effects of agronomic management practices and weather variables on phenological stages and crop phases in order to develop strategies for adaptation of agricultural systems to changes in climatic conditions. The goal of this study was to determine the impact of warming trends on phenology of canola from 1980 to 2014 for central and southern Punjab, Pakistan. Sowing, emergence, anthesis and physiological maturity dates were delayed by an average of 6.02, 3.14, 3.31 and 1.89 days per decade, respectively.The duration of sowing to anthesis, sowing to physiological maturity and anthesis to physiological maturity phases decreased an average 2.71, 4.13 and 1.42 days per decade, respectively, for all 10 locations that were analysed in this study. The sowing, emergence, anthesis and physiological maturity dates were positively correlated with an increase in temperature by an average 2.71, 1.41, 1.49 and 0.85 days per°C , respectively. However, the phenological phases such as sowing to anthesis, anthesis to maturity and sowing to maturity were negatively correlated with an increase in temperature by an average of 1.22, 0.64 and 1.86 days per°C, respectively, for all 10 locations. Applying a process-based CSM-CROPGRO-Canola model using a standard cultivar (field tested) for all locations and years indicated that the simulated phenological stages occurred earlier due to the warming trend compared to the observed phenological stages. One-quarter of the negative effects of this thermal trend was compensated by growing new cultivars that had higher thermal time requirements. Therefore, new canola genotypes with a higher number of growing degree day requirement and high temperature tolerance should be a priority for evolving new cultivars. K E Y W O R D S anthesis date, Brassica napus L., climate change, CSM-CROPGRO-Canola model, cultivar shift,

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“…The GDP and per capita growth lead towards environmental degradation, whereas pandemics and disruption in economic activities have a contrary impact on climate (World Bank 2020 ; das Neves Almeida et al 2017 ; Ali et al 2019 ). Akram ( 2013 ) and Akram and Hamid ( 2015 ) examined the bilateral relationship among GDP, energy consumption, industrial output, and climate change. The outcomes revealed that these factors have caused the temperature to rise in Pakistan and have a detrimental effect on the environment.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

How COVID-19 shock will drive the economy and climate? A data-driven approach to model and forecast

Khurshid

Khan

2020

Environ Sci Pollut Res

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The pandemic shock puts the world on quarantine and paused economic operations that affected energy consumption and economic output. This study analyzed the impact of the COVID-19 shock on GDP, energy consumption, and climate change then forecasted the situation until 2032 using the system dynamic modeling approach. The outcomes reveal that the pandemic shock will decrease the growth by 1.3% in 2020 and 1.32% in 2021. The current shortfall, low energy consumption, and delay in completion of energy-related projects can reduce the GDP by 5.2% in 2020. The effect will penetrate the system and will cause further losses in the upcoming years. The energy consumption and quarantine situation will improve the climate situation and drop the average temperature by 0.049 and 0.021 o C in 2020 and 2021. The aggregate demand and supply side measures such as national spending, lowering the lending rate, and cuts in income taxes can help in diffusing the situation. The government should start operations on ongoing energy projects, give relaxation to SME's with tight SOPs to secure jobs, and prevent possible GDP losses. The decline in oil prices provides an opportunity to cut fossil fuel subsidies and implement a carbon pricing mechanism.

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Climate change: A threat to the economic growth of Pakistan

Cited by 29 publications

References 37 publications

Can Growing Degree Days and Photoperiod Predict Spring Wheat Phenology?

Can Growing Degree Days and Photoperiod Predict Spring Wheat Phenology?

Quantification of the impacts of climate warming and crop management on canola phenology in Punjab, Pakistan

How COVID-19 shock will drive the economy and climate? A data-driven approach to model and forecast

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