Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis Summary for Policymakers

Gray, V. R.

doi:10.1260/095830507781076194

Cited by 244 publications

(37 citation statements)

References 8 publications

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“…Derived values are provided in Table 1. For the climate projections in this paper the RCP4.5 scenario is WPC (2008WPC ( , 2014 and Gregersen et al (2014b). The climate factors are valid for a duration of 1 h but also recommended for other durations up to 3 h. The indices marked with bold are the ones used in this paper.…”

Section: Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The Water Pollution Committee of the Society of Danish Engineers has published reports (guidelines nos. 29 and 30) with recommendations for design of drainage systems considering climate change (WPC, 2008(WPC, , 2014, background report: Gregersen et al, 2014b). Based also on the climate simulations of the ENSEMBLES project, the climate factors for drainage system design in Denmark are recommended (Table 2).…”

Section: Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

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Event-based stochastic point rainfall resampling for statistical replication and climate projection of historical rainfall series

Thorndahl

Andersen²,

Larsen³

2017

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. Continuous and long rainfall series are a necessity in rural and urban hydrology for analysis and design purposes. Local historical point rainfall series often cover several decades, which makes it possible to estimate rainfall means at different timescales, and to assess return periods of extreme events. Due to climate change, however, these series are most likely not representative of future rainfall. There is therefore a demand for climate-projected long rainfall series, which can represent a specific region and rainfall pattern as well as fulfil requirements of long rainfall series which includes climate changes projected to a specific future period. This paper presents a framework for resampling of historical point rainfall series in order to generate synthetic rainfall series, which has the same statistical properties as an original series. Using a number of key target predictions for the future climate, such as winter and summer precipitation, and representation of extreme events, the resampled historical series are projected to represent rainfall properties in a future climate. Climate-projected rainfall series are simulated by brute force randomization of model parameters, which leads to a large number of projected series. In order to evaluate and select the rainfall series with matching statistical properties as the key target projections, an extensive evaluation procedure is developed.

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Section: Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Event-based stochastic point rainfall resampling for statistical replication and climate projection of historical rainfall series

Thorndahl

Andersen²,

Larsen³

2017

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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“…The anthropogenic changes in climate and atmospheric CO 2 could have important impacts on the sustainability of earth ecosystems and food security [1]. In comparison to land-use change, it is difficult for local governments to reverse or intervene the trend of climate change.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Global ecosystem sustainability is threatened by the dramatic rise of atmospheric CO 2 and the accompanying climate changes [1]. An arid and semiarid ecosystem is more sensitive to climate changes than other terrestrial ecosystems [2][3][4][5][6].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Isolating and Quantifying the Effects of Climate and CO2 Changes (1980–2014) on the Net Primary Productivity in Arid and Semiarid China

Fang

Zhang

Wang

et al. 2017

Forests

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Abstract:Although the net primary productivity (NPP) of arid/semiarid ecosystem is generally thought to be controlled by precipitation, other factors like CO 2 fertilization effect and temperature change may also have important impacts, especially in the cold temperate areas of the northern China, where significant warming was reported in the recent decades. However, the impacts of climate and atmospheric CO 2 changes to the NPP dynamics in the arid and semiarid areas of China (ASA-China) is still unclear, hindering the development of climate adaptation strategy. Based on numeric experiments and factorial analysis, this study isolated and quantified the effects of climate and CO 2 changes between 1980-2014 on ASA-China's NPP, using the Arid Ecosystem Model (AEM) that performed well in predicting ecosystems' responses to climate/CO 2 change according to our evaluation based on 21 field experiments. Our results showed that the annual variation in NPP was dominated by changes in precipitation, which reduced the regional NPP by 10.9 g·C/(m 2 ·year). The precipitation-induced loss, however, has been compensated by the CO 2 fertilization effect that increased the regional NPP by 14.9 g·C/(m 2 ·year). The CO 2 fertilization effect particularly benefited the extensive croplands in the Northern China Plain, but was weakened in the dry grassland of the central Tibetan Plateau due to suppressed plant activity as induced by a drier climate. Our study showed that the climate change in ASA-China and the ecosystem's responses were highly heterogeneous in space and time. There were complex interactive effects among the climate factors, and different plant functional types (e.g., phreatophyte vs. non-phreatophyte) could have distinct responses to similar climate change. Therefore, effective climate-adaptive strategies should be based on careful analysis of local climate pattern and understanding of the characteristic responses of the dominant species. Particularly, China's policy makers should pay close attention to climate change and ecosystem health in northeastern China, where significant loss in forest NPP has been triggered by drought, and carefully balance the ecological and agricultural water usage. For wildlife conservation, the drought-stressed grassland in the central Tibetan Plateau should be protected from overgrazing in the face of dramatic warming in the 21st century.

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“…Yet, convergent and overwhelming evidence from all over the world underlines that mankind has already changed and continues changing the face of our planet. Among the many transformations humans imposed on our planet, some of the most severe appear to be (1) the addition of more than 550 billion metric tons of carbon to the atmosphere which are the main drivers of global climate change and ocean acidification (Gray 2007;Ciasi and Sabine 2013), (2) the alteration of the global nitrogen cycle by the use of artificial fertilizers (Canfield et al 2010), (3) the routing of more than one third of global primary production to human consumption (Krausmann et al 2013), (4) the ongoing mass extinction of species (Barnosky et al 2011), and (5) the globalization of transport which has resulted in the spread of invasive species and pathogens (Lewis and Maslin 2015). It is now widely recognized that global ecosystem services may be inadvertently suffering from human action, because human-induced environmental impacts are overriding natural process that have dominated our planet for millions of years (Steffen et al 2011).…”

Section: The Emergence Of a New Geological Epoch: The Anthropocenementioning

confidence: 99%

Bats in the Anthropocene

Voigt

Kingston

2015

Bats in the Anthropocene: Conservation of Bats in a Changing World

110

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Humans have inadvertently changed global ecosystems and triggered the dawn of a new geological epoch, the Anthropocene. While some organisms can tolerate human activities and even flourish in anthropogenic habitats, the vast majority are experiencing dramatic population declines, pushing our planet into a sixth mass extinction. Bats are particularly susceptible to anthropogenic changes because of their low reproductive rate, longevity, and high metabolic rates. Fifteen percent of bat species are listed as threatened by the IUCN, i.e., they are considered Critically Endangered, Endangered or Vulnerable. About 18 % of species are Data Deficient, highlighting the paucity of ecological studies that can support conservation status assessments. This book summarizes major topics related to the conservation of bats organized into sections that address: the response of bats to land use changes; how the emergence of viral and fungal diseases has changed bat populations; our perception of bats; and drivers of human-bat conflicts and possible resolutions and mitigation. The book ends with approaches that might advance bat conservation through conservation networks and a better understanding of human behavior and behavioral change.

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Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis Summary for Policymakers

Cited by 244 publications

References 8 publications

Event-based stochastic point rainfall resampling for statistical replication and climate projection of historical rainfall series

Event-based stochastic point rainfall resampling for statistical replication and climate projection of historical rainfall series

Isolating and Quantifying the Effects of Climate and CO2 Changes (1980–2014) on the Net Primary Productivity in Arid and Semiarid China

Bats in the Anthropocene

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