Climate-based dengue model in Semarang, Indonesia: Predictions and descriptive analysis

Abstract

Background Dengue is one of the most rapidly spreading vector-borne diseases, which is considered to be a major health concern in tropical and sub-tropical countries. It is strongly believed that the spread and abundance of vectors are related to climate. Construction of climate-based mathematical model that integrates meteorological factors into disease infection model becomes compelling challenge since the climate is positively associated with both incidence and vector existence. Methods A host-vector model is constructed to simulate the dynamic of transmission. The infection rate parameter is replaced with the time-dependent coefficient obtained by optimization to approximate the daily dengue data. Further, the optimized infection rate is denoted as a function of climate variables using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model. Results The infection parameter can be extended when updated daily climates are known, and it can be useful to forecast dengue incidence. This approach provides proper prediction, even when tested in increasing or decreasing prediction windows. In addition, associations between climate and dengue are presented as a reversed slide-shaped curve for dengue-humidity and a reversed U-shaped curves for dengue-temperature and dengue-precipitation. The range of optimal temperature for infection is 24.3–30.5 °C. Humidity and precipitation are positively associated with dengue upper the threshold 70 % at lag 38 days and below 50 mm at lag 50 days, respectively. Conclusion Identification of association between climate and dengue is potentially useful to counter the high risk of dengue and strengthen the public health system and reduce the increase of the dengue burden.

Hazard Level of Dengue Haemorrhagic Fever in Gorontalo Regency: Prediction of Spatial Distribution with AHP-GIS Integration

“…Demam berdarah yang tercatat di negaranegara Asia Pasifik seperti Indonesia, Thailand, Singapura juga terkait dengan suhu, kelembaban relatif, dan curah hujan (Sulekan et al, 2021). Semua perubahan ini menunjukkan bahwa kondisi iklim memiliki peran penting dalam penularan penyakit demam berdarah (Caldwell et al, 2021;Campbell et al, 2015;Ewing et al, 2016;Nuraini et al, 2021;Sulekan et al, 2021). Provinsi Gorontalo merupakan provinsi keempat dengan IR tertinggi pada tahun 2019 yaitu sebesar 101,53% per 100.000 penduduk dengan CFR sebesar 1,88.…”

“…Hujan sangat berpengaruh terhadap kelembaban nisbi udara jumlah tempat perkembangan vektor. Kemungkinan kelangsungan hidup nyamuk yang terinfeksi pada musim penghujan akan meningkat karena suhu udara dan kelembaban udara selama musim penghujan sangat cocok untuk kelangsungan hidup nyamuk dewasa (Caldwell et al, 2021;Campbell et al, 2015;Nuraini et al, 2021;Sulekan et al, 2021). Lokasi penelitian didominasi oleh hujan total tahunan rerata 2200 mm/tahun -2300 mm/tahun seluas 188.570,61 ha atau 87,98% dari total luas Kabupaten Gorontalo (Gambar 1).…”

“…Kelembaban memiliki peranan penting dalam kebiasaan menggigit, waktu istirahat, dan kelangsungan hidup (survival rate) nyamuk. Umur nyamuk lebih pendek jika berada pada kondisi kelembaban yang rendah sehingga membatasi siklus perkembangan parasit dalam tubuh nyamuk (Nuraini et al, 2021;Salim & Syairaji, 2020). Lebih dari 80% wilayah penelitian didominasi oleh kelembaban rerata lebih dari >80% (Gambar 1) sehingga potensi umur nyamuk lebih panjang dan berpotensi meningkatkan sebaran penyakit DBD.…”

“…DBD ber-gantung pada musim yang berkorelasi dengan suhu yang hangat dan lembab. Kelembaban, suhu, evaporasi, kecepatan angin, dan lama penyinaran matahari merupakan faktor iklim yang paling berpengaruh pada sebaran penyakit menular melalui vektor (Caldwell et al, 2021;Campbell et al, 2015;Nuraini et al, 2021;Salim & Syairaji, 2020;Sulekan et al, 2021). Perubahan iklim terhadap penyakit menular melalui vektor tidak berpengaruh secara langsung tetapi berpengaruh pada jumlah dan kelangsungan hidup nyamuk.…”

The Constant Threat of Zoonotic and Vector-Borne Emerging Tropical Diseases: Living on the Edge

“…As was expected, coinfections between tropical pathogens and COVID-19 are also now increasingly being reported, especially with dengue ( 30 ). Dengue affects over 100 countries worldwide and puts about 2.5-3.9 billion people at risk of infection ( 113 , 114 ). Within the next century, nearly a billion people are at risk of exposure to virus transmission by both main Aedes spp., Ae.…”