Climate adjusted productivity on Australian cropping farms

Hughes, Neal; Lawson, Kenton

doi:10.4337/9781786432421.00012

Cited by 9 publications

(4 citation statements)

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“…Often the principal cause of the emissions reduction was a swing away from sheep production towards grain production, as evidenced by the decline in enteric emissions (Figure 4). The swing away from sheep production since 1990 triggered by the collapse of the Reserve Price Scheme for wool in 1991 (Bardsley, 1994) and aided by subsequent productivity gain in cropping (Hughes & Lawson, 2017) saw large declines in sheep populations in the northern and central parts of the study region. Most shires generated decreases in emissions due to falls in enteric emissions that exceeded the rise in cropping-related emissions such as increased applications of lime and urea.…”

Section: Spatial Patterns Of Emissions Within the Regionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Agriculture’s carbon neutral challenge: The case of Western Australia*

Kingwell¹

2021

Aus J Agri & Res Econ

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Agriculture is being encouraged to become carbon neutral, and agricultural land is being touted as a source of carbon sequestration. Yet making agricultural regions locally carbon neutral will involve an economic cost, with existing patterns of greenhouse gas emissions and spatial costs of abatement affecting that cost of achieving regional carbon neutrality. This study examines the economic cost of locally achieving carbon neutrality, using the illustration of Western Australia's agricultural region. The cost to the region of achieving carbon neutrality via reforestation is estimated, as is the spatial allocation of farmland for sequestration. Social and political pressures that likely constrain how much farmland can be reforested are explicitly considered. Findings are subject to a sensitivity analysis and several caveats. The annual cost of regional carbon neutrality via proscribed regional reforestation, under current carbon offset prices, is estimated to range from AUD216 million to AUD250 million (i.e. under 3 per cent of the region's gross value of agricultural production) which might suggest the challenge to be carbon neutral is within commercial reach. However, without other financial incentives, it likely involves farm business profits being reduced by around 15 per cent.

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Section: Spatial Patterns Of Emissions Within the Regionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Agriculture’s carbon neutral challenge: The case of Western Australia*

Kingwell¹

2021

Aus J Agri & Res Econ

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“…The lowest emitting shires are mainly in the central wheatbelt, where the sheep population has greatly reduced and where shires are small in area. The swing away from sheep production since 1990, triggered by the collapse of the Reserve Price Scheme for wool in 1991 [30] and aided by subsequent productivity gain in cropping [31] has seen many farm businesses increase their crop dominance.…”

Section: Spatial Patterns Of Emissions Within the Regionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Making Agriculture Carbon Neutral Amid a Changing Climate: The Case of South-Western Australia

Kingwell

2021

Land

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Making Australian agriculture carbon neutral by 2050 is a goal espoused by several agricultural organisations in Australia. How costly might it be to attain that goal, especially when adverse climate change projections apply to agriculture in southern Australia? This study uses scenario analysis to examine agricultural emissions and their abatement via reforestation in south-western Australia under projected climate change. Most scenarios include the likelihood of agricultural emissions being reduced in the coming decades. However, the impact of projected adverse climate change on tree growth and tree survival means that the cost of achieving agricultural carbon neutrality via reforestation is forecast to increase in south-western Australia. Agricultural R&D and innovation that enable agricultural emissions to diminish in the coming decades will be crucial to lessen the cost of achieving carbon neutrality. On balance, the more likely scenarios reveal the real cost of achieving carbon neutrality will not greatly increase. The cost of achieving carbon neutrality under the various scenarios is raised by an additional AUD22 million to AUD100 million per annum in constant 2020 dollar terms. This magnitude of cost increase is very small relative to the region’s gross value of agricultural production that is regularly greater than AUD10 billion.

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“…The extent of impact on agricultural industries, and pasture-based livestock systems in particular, is unclear, although a recent modelling study using retrospective climate data suggests that pasture growth patterns have already changed in South East Australia over the last six decades (Perera et al 2020). However, the climate-adjusted total factor productivity of the whole Australian agricultural sector has increased since the late 1970s (Huges et al 2017), and crop productivity in dry years has also increased over the last two decades in Australia. This suggests that key agricultural industries like cropping for grain production can readily adapt to CC.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

What’s next for the New Zealand dairy feed-base? Learnings from climate analogues

et al. 2021

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• The reviewed literature suggests that the likely main impact of climate change on New Zealand dairy systems will be a reduction in total annual rainfall and increased inter- and intra-season rainfall and associated soil moisture variability.• Future climate analogues for New Zealand’s current dairying regions are provided from both within New Zealand and Australia.• Future climate scenarios for New Zealand dairy systems can be found within New Zealand with the exception of Northland whose most similar climate analogue is in Australia.• A conceptual framework to increase the boundaries of the ‘zone of system control’ (ZSC) by the farmer is provided here for the first time. The ZSC is defined as the optimal range for a critical input (rainfall or soil moisture in this case) where productive and profitable farming can occur.• Risk of failure increases as the frequency inputs fall above (excess) or below (deficit) the ZSC. Options to reduce the risk of system failure (outside of this zone) are provided with emphasis on soil moisture.• This framework could be used to focus future research and development investment to make the New Zealand and Australian dairy industries more resilient to climate change.

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Climate adjusted productivity on Australian cropping farms

Cited by 9 publications

References 0 publications

Agriculture’s carbon neutral challenge: The case of Western Australia*

Agriculture’s carbon neutral challenge: The case of Western Australia*

Making Agriculture Carbon Neutral Amid a Changing Climate: The Case of South-Western Australia

What’s next for the New Zealand dairy feed-base? Learnings from climate analogues

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