Climate adaptation guidance: New roles for hydroeconomic analysis

Baccour, Safa; Ward, Frank A.; Albiac, José

doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.155518

Cited by 11 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 73 publications

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“…However, ensemble research has not permeated yet to policy makers and the Decision Support Systems (DSS) used in planning and management. A paradoxical example of this disconnection comes from human-water systems: despite significant advances in the integration of human and water systems (Baccour et al, 2022;Graveline, 2020;Li et al, 2020;Martínez-Dalmau et al, 2023;Pande and Sivapalan, 2017;Ward, 2021) and uncertainty quantification (Beven and Binley, 1992;Sapino et al, 2022b;HEPEX, 2023), in practice water resources planning and management rarely accounts for human systems, and typically ignores uncertainties within and across the water and/or water systems modelled (OECD, 2021).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Actionable human-water systems modeling under uncertainty

Gil-García,

Montilla-López,

Gutiérrez-Martín

et al. 2024

Preprint

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Abstract. This paper develops an actionable interdisciplinary model that thoroughly quantifies and assesses uncertainties in water resources allocation under climate change. To achieve this objective, we develop an innovative socio-ecological grand ensemble that combines climate, hydrological, and microeconomic ensemble experiments with a widely used Decision Support System for water resources planning and management. Each system is populated with multiple models (multi-model), which we use to evaluate the impacts of multiple climatic scenarios and policies (multi-scenario, multi-forcing) across systems, so as to identify plausible futures where water management policies meet or miss their objectives, and explore potential tipping points. The application of methods is exemplified through a study conducted in the Douro River Basin (DRB), an agricultural basin located in central Spain. Our results show how marginal climate changes can trigger nonlinear water allocation changes in the Decision Support Systems (DSS); which can be further aggravated by the nonlinear adaptive responses of irrigators to water shortages. For example, while some irrigators barely experience economic losses (average profit and employment fall by <0.5 %) under mild water allocation reductions of 5 % or lower, profit and employment fall up to 12 % (~24x more) where water allocation is reduced by 10 % or less (~2x more). This substantiates the relevance of informing on the potential natural and socioeconomic impacts of adaptation strategies, and related uncertainties, towards identifying robust decisions.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Actionable human-water systems modeling under uncertainty

Gil-García,

Montilla-López,

Gutiérrez-Martín

et al. 2024

Preprint

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“…Water and soil are natural resources that are essential for the existence and development of human civilisation [1,2]. In regions of the world afflicted by water shortages, economic activities can be limited by water availability, leading to competition both between sectors and between human uses and the needs of the environment [3,4]. To ensure economic efficiency, an equal relationship between the limit value of the product and the marginal value of water should be achieved for all uses and all users [5].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Land Valuation Systems in Relation to Water Retention

Slaboch,

Malý

2023

Agronomy

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This article uses a derived econometric model to estimate the impact of the physical properties of soil on its retention capacity and, subsequently, the impact of retention capacity on production potential. This is an important aspect considering climate change impacts, which are affecting food production across the world. An investigation of academic publications shows that very few studies address opportunities to price rainwater in relation to agricultural production. As such, the objective of the submitted article is to use soil physical property spatial data to create an econometric model. The econometric model itself determines the intensity and direction of action of the soil’s physical properties on the ability of the soil to hold rainwater. The results demonstrate the positive effect of physical properties such as porosity and humus content. Important information for farming practice is the relatively pronounced influence of soil acidity (pH) on its retention capacity, which is mainly the result of its effect on soil biogeochemical processes. The most significant variable in terms of the extent of action is the depth of the soil profile, which is in line with general assumptions. The actual evaluation of soil retention capacity was undertaken using an option with the use of a sensitivity analysis. In order to include the non-production function of the soil (retention capacity), we conclude for individual enhanced quality soil ecological units an increased price of 1–12%. These conclusions are particularly valuable because some soils may have a low production potential while also being highly valuable for their particular location in terms of their non-production potential (typically desirable floodwater retention, etc.). Considering climate change, this is a particularly topical issue. The use of enhanced-quality soil ecological units is reflected in a wide range of fields through legislative processes—determining rural land protection class and, especially in the tax obligations of agricultural entities, farming agricultural land.

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