Classifying the Ice Seasons 1982-2016 Using the Weighted Ice Days Number as a New Winter Severity Characteristic

Abstract

Sea ice is a key climate factor and it restricts considerably the winter navigation in severe seasons on the Baltic Sea. So determining ice conditions severity and describing ice cover behavior at severe seasons are necessary. The ice seasons severity degree is studied at the years 1982 to 2016. A new integrative characteristic named the weighted ice days number of the season is introduced to determine the ice season severity. The ice concentration data on the Baltic Sea published in the European Copernicus Programme are used to calculate the maximal ice extent and the weighted ice days number of the seasons. Both the ice season severity characteristics are used to classify the winters with respect of severity. The ice seasons 1981/82, 1984/85, 1985/86, 1986/87, 1995/96 and 2002/03 are classified as severe by the weighted ice days number. Only three seasons of this list are severe by both the criteria. We interpret this coincidence as the evidence of enough-during extensive ice cover in these three seasons. In the winter 2010/11 ice cover extended widely for some time, but did not last longer. At 2002/03 and a few other ice seasons the Baltic Sea was ice-covered in moderate extent, but the ice cover stayed long time. For 11 winters (32 % of the period) the relational weighted ice days number differs considerably (> 10 %) from the relational maximal ice extent. These winters yield one third of the studied ice seasons. Statistically every 6th winter is severe by the weighted ice days number whereas only statistically every 8th winter is severe by the maximal ice extent on the Baltic. Hence there are more intrinsically severe seasons than the maximal ice extent gives. The maximal ice extent fails to account with the ice cover durability. The weighted ice days number enables to describe the ice cover behavior more representatively. Using the weighted ice days number adds the temporal dimension to the ice season severity study.

Trichinella spp. in Wild Boars (Sus scrofa), Brown Bears (Ursus arctos), Eurasian Lynxes (Lynx lynx) and Badgers (Meles meles) in Estonia, 2007–2014

“…Trichinella spiralis could be infecting wildlife in Estonia similarly as described by Oksanen and others [ 22 ], as spillover from the domestic cycle. That we did not find freeze-sensitive T. spiralis in the main reservoir animal host species in our previous study [ 6 ] might be explained by two consecutive colder years before 2011/2012 [ 26 ].…”

Effects of sea ice and wind speed on Phytoplankton spring bloom in Central and Southern Baltic Sea

“…A similar result was found by Klais et al [20] which indicated that the local physical conditions (mild and variable winters) resulting from large-scale changes in weather patterns may be more crucial factors than nutrients in explaining the shift towards dinoflagellate dominance. Changeable weather in winter and spring: Since the 1990s, stratification collapse (strong mixing events) has frequently occurred in winters from October to April when saline and thermal stratification decreases [45]. Winters have become increasingly inconstant, with extremely high air temperatures for short periods [46]. High air temperatures cause sea ice melting and reduce its thickness.…”

“…Changeable weather in winter and spring: Since the 1990s, stratification collapse (strong mixing events) has frequently occurred in winters from October to April when saline and thermal stratification decreases [45]. Winters have become increasingly inconstant, with extremely high air temperatures for short periods [46]. High air temperatures cause sea ice melting and reduce its thickness.…”

Determining the Regime Shift of the Baltic Sea Ice Seasons during 1982–2016

“…2). Negative values of Δch indicated the seasons (winters) in which ice cover lasted longer, whereas positive values indicated the seasons (winters) in which the ice cover was extensive for some time but did not last long [20]. Therefore, the difference Δch of the season shifted from the negative to positive.…”

“…The winters in the initial parts had relatively long-lasting ice cover. At the end of the studied period, maximal ice cover stayed only for a short time [17].…”