Classifying Juvenile Offenders According to Risk of Recidivism

Abstract

Structured risk assessment instruments are increasingly used in juvenile justice systems to support judicial decision making. They help juvenile justice authorities identify youths with a higher likelihood of repeat delinquency and reduce discretion associated with disposition decision making. To be effective, these instruments should be accurate across diverse populations. This study describes the predictive validity of the North Carolina Assessment of Risk (NCAR) in a sample of 9,534 adjudicated juveniles in North Carolina. Results show the predictive validity of the NCAR to differ by gender and race/ethnicity. Closer inspection reveals that risk factors for recidivism differed according to demographic group and that brief risk assessment instruments such as the NCAR leave other risk factors unmeasured. The results support the utility of risk assessment for juvenile justice decision making and suggest strategies to improve the validity of risk assessment for all offender groups.

Evaluation of an Innovative Post-Arrest Diversion Program: 12-Month Recidivism Analysis

“…In general, males are more likely to recidivate than females (e.g., Baffour, 2006;Dembo, Schmeidler, Nini-Gough, Sue, Borden, & Manning, 1998;Minor, Hartmann, & Terry, 1997;Schwalbe, Fraser, Day, & Cooley, 2006; but see Benda, Corwyn, & Toombs, 2001). Race and ethnicity are also associated with recidivism, such that individuals who are of a minority race or ethnicity are at greater risk of recidivism (e.g., Dembo et al, 1998;Minor et al, 1997;Schwalbe et al, 2006; but see Baffour, 2006). Age has also been associated with recidivism (e.g., Minor et al, 1997).…”

“…In particular, youths with learning disabilities who experience involvement in special education programs are more likely to be involved in delinquency and recidivate (e.g., Archwamety & Katsiyannis, 1998, 2000Doren, Bullis, & Benz, 1996;Katsiyannis & Archwamety, 1997). Recidivism has also been shown to be influenced by the nature of the offense in the youth's criminal record (e.g., Dembo et al, 1998;Myner, Santman, Cappelletty, & Perlmutter, 1998;Schwalbe et al, 2006), with more serious prior offenses increasing the odds of recidivism.…”

“…Risk and need assessments are important tools used to inform decisions about the intensity of treatment and supervision and the prediction of future offending (Schmidt, Hoge, & Gomes, 2005). Structured assessment instruments provide consistent and relatively impartial methods of determining appropriate correctional decisions (i.e., intake, adjudication, release) based on various risk and=or need criteria (Baird, Wagner, Healy, & Johnson, 1999;Schwalbe, Fraser, Day, & Cooley, 2006).…”

“…Moreover, emotional and psychological functioning problems have been associated with delinquent behavior (e.g., Boesky, 2002;Dembo & Schmeidler, 2003;Teplin, Abram, McClelland, & Dulcan, 2002). Typically, risk assessments cover two or more of these risk domains (Schwalbe et al, 2006). While the aforementioned list of risk factors is very broad, the risk assessment instrumentation used to evaluate the juvenile diversion program in this study incorporates one or more aspect of each of these life areas for determining risk (see description of risk measures below).…”

On the Precipice of Intersectionality

“…Our findings demonstrated that being on probation in City A was a significant predictor of probation failure, unlike probationers in City B, a finding that must be assessed with caution as it has been argued that examinations of differential prediction should be subject to more stringent statistical techniques (i.e., multilevel models as opposed to traditional regression analysis, e.g., see Onifade, Davidson, & Campbell, 2009;Schwalbe, Fraser, Day, & Cooley, 2006). Doing so would allow for a more intricate understanding of the impact that community and sociopolitical variables have on the outcome measure under question, as these factors have been shown to have a different expression within minority communities.…”