Civil Wartime Political Parties: Evidence from Four Rebellions in India

Abstract

Elections frequently occur during civil wars. Yet, existing research does not adequately conceptualize the political parties contesting them nor, in particular, the party organizations which are ideologically aligned with insurgents but opposed to overthrowing the state. This study conceptualizes such non-revisionist parties as aligned status quo party organizations and situates them in a novel typology of civil wartime political parties. Regression discontinuity and qualitative analyses of four civil wars in India find that in localities where aligned status quo parties won elections, overall voter turnout significantly declined in subsequent election cycles and can be explained by rebels and state security forces intensifying their operations in these areas. The results illustrate that aligned status quo parties uniquely face counterinsurgent and insurgent coercion, reinforce the typology's utility, and contribute to our understanding of political parties and civil wartime democratic institutions.