Civil conflict and voting behavior: Evidence from Colombia

Abstract

What are the effects of war on political behavior? Colombia is an interesting case in which conflict and elections coexist, and illegal armed groups intentionally affect electoral outcomes. Nonetheless, groups have used different strategies to alter these results. This paper argues that differential effects of violence on electoral outcomes are the result of deliberate strategies followed by illegal groups, which in turn result from military conditions that differ between them. Using panel data from Senate elections from 1994 to 2006 and an instrumental variables approach to address potential endogeneity concerns, this paper shows that guerrilla violence decreases turnout, while paramilitary violence has no effect on participation, but reduces electoral competition and benefits non-traditional third parties. FARC violence is significantly higher during election years, while paramilitary violence is lower. This is consistent with the hypothesis that the guerrillas’ strategy is to sabotage elections, while paramilitaries establish alliances with certain candidates.

Who Shot the Bullets? Exposure to Violence and Attitudes Toward Peace: Evidence from the 2016 Colombian Referendum

“…Similarly, but using a measure of armed group presence (rather than violence), Arjona (2016b) found that support for the agreement was 14 percent higher in communities with FARC presence than in communities with only paramilitary presence. Moreover, these results are also consistent with findings from other studies that have explored the differential effects of FARC versus paramilitary violence on Colombians' voting behavior more generally (Gallego 2018). 21 The analysis also shows that other factors had an impact on support for the peace agreement.…”

“…3 This study disaggregates exposure to violence by "who shot the bullets." To be sure, we are not the first to examine the effects of perpetrator identity on civilian attitudes (see, e.g., Gallego 2018;Lupu and Wallace 2019;Lyall 2010;Lyall et al 2013). However, to the best of our knowledge, this is the first study to do so in the specific context of attitudes toward peace.…”

Natural disasters and clientelism: The case of floods and landslides in Colombia

“…Election day was relatively calm, although illegal armed groups (comprised by guerrillas and paramilitaries) once more tried to interfere and alter the normal conduct of elections (Gallego (2011)).…”

Excombatientes, legados de violencia y competitividad electoral. Elecciones locales en Colombia, 2019

“…Es decir, los municipios con mayores tasas de violencia y donde hubo participación del partido FARC presentan, en promedio, menor NEP y mayor margen de victoria. Este hallazgo concuerda con estudios recientes que encuentran que el comportamiento y actitudes políticas en el país dependen de factores relacionados con el conflicto armado y la exposición a la violencia (Gallego, 2018;Tellez, 2018).…”