Cirrhosis mortality and per capita consumption of distilled spirits, United States, 1949-94: trend analysis

Abstract

Objective To describe, evaluate, and suggest interpretations for an observed aggregate level relation between trends in mortality from cirrhosis and per capita consumption of distilled spirits in the United States. Design Trend analysis using data on US cirrhosis mortality and per capita alcohol consumption. Results There is a consistent long term trend relation between mortality from cirrhosis and per capita consumption of distilled spirits in the United States from 1949 to 1994. Two instances of comparatively sharp drops in the consumption of spirits earlier in the 1940s generated mixed results in predicting changes in cirrhosis mortality. Conclusions An aggregate level relation between trends in long term cirrhosis mortality and the consumption of spirits falls considerably short of establishing a direct causal link between the two for individuals. Moreover, two sharp drops in the consumption of spirits generated only mixed results with respect to the short term trend in cirrhosis. Nevertheless, the observed relation between the consumption of spirits and cirrhosis mortality merits further investigation.

The Effects of Beverage Specific Alcohol Sale on Liver Cirrhosis Mortality in Russia

“…Furthermore, the results of beverage-specific modeling indicated that spirits was the key beverage driving the association between per capita alcohol consumption and liver cirrhosis mortality rate. These results are consistent with the previous findings from other settings that spirits is the most significant beverage-specific predictor of liver cirrhosis mortality [17,18].…”

“…At the same time, there were no significant effects for either beer or wine sales. Similarly, Roizen and coauthors [18] reported that liver cirrhosis mortality is more strongly associated with consumption of spirits than with other alcoholic beverages in the US from 1949 and 1994, when it was primarily a beer-drinking country. Kerr and coauthors [19] replicates this finding in his cross-sectional time series analysis based on data from five predominantly beer-drinking Englishspeaking countries and identified spirits to be largely responsible for the association between alcohol and liver cirrhosis mortality rates.…”

Long-term follow-up of patients diagnosed with alcohol dependence or alcohol abuse who were evaluated for liver transplantation

“…A lcohol is the most common cause of end-stage liver disease 1 and the second most common indication for orthotopic liver transplantation (OLT) in the United States according to data gathered in 1995 by the United Network for Organ Sharing. Patients who use alcohol after OLT are believed to be at increased risk for graft loss from direct alcohol injury or noncompliance with medical treatment.…”

Do Consumers Exploit Commitment Opportunities? Evidence from Natural Experiments Involving Liquor Consumption

“…For instance, many states have historically carved out exemptions for certain types of wine and beer based on alcohol content. Second, there is evidence that the selfcontrol problems commonly associated with alcohol consumption are most prevalent for liquor (see, for example, Roizen et al 1999, or Kerr et al, 2002 Our central finding is that liquor consumption increases along with allowable onpremise Sunday sales hours, but there is no evidence that it is affected by offpremise Sunday sales hours. These findings are robust with respect to a wide variety of specifications, including ones that control for pre-existing trends and concurrent changes in related restrictions.…”

“…At best, they allow 15 Separately, we also examined whether Sunday sales hours for wine and beer affected wine and beer consumption, but the results were inconclusive. As we noted in the introduction, the results for liquor speak most directly and reliably to the hypotheses of interest because self-control problems are more prevalent for liquor (Roizen et al 1999, andKerr et al, 2002), and because our measures of sales restrictions are "noisier" for wine and beer (given that the restrictions themselves are more complicated).…”