Aims/hypothesis Baseline circulating fibroblast growth factor 21 (FGF21) levels can predict total cardiovascular disease events in the Fenofibrate Intervention and Event Lowering in Diabetes (FIELD) study. This paper describes the relationship of baseline FGF21 levels and new on-study microvascular disease in patients with type 2 diabetes from the FIELD study. Methods Baseline FGF21 levels were measured in plasma by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay in 9697 study participants. Total microvascular disease was defined as the presence of any nephropathy, retinopathy, neuropathy and/or microvascular amputation. The relationship between FGF21 levels and microvascular disease was assessed by multivariable logistic regression. Results Higher baseline FGF21 levels were found in patients with baseline total microvascular disease (p<0.001). The association remained significant after adjusting for potential confounding factors (OR [95% CI] 1.13 [1.08, 1.19] per SD increase in log e -transformed FGF21 levels, p<0.001). Of 6465 patients without baseline total microvascular disease, 1517 developed new on-study total microvascular disease over 5 years of follow-up. Higher baseline FGF21 levels were associated with a higher risk of new on-study total microvasKerry-Anne Rye and Anthony C. Keech are joint senior authors.Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s00125-015-3652-2) contains peer-reviewed but unedited supplementary material, which is available to authorised users.