Choosing Important Traits for the Model of High-Yielding Winter Wheat Variety Based on the Results of Regional Ecological Varietal Testing

Abstract

Current study is devoted to the development of an ideotype of winter wheat variety for cultivation in the conditions of the South of Ukraine. The investigation is based on the results of regional ecological varietal testing, conducted in the Southern Steppe zone on the non-irrigated lands. Varietal traits, included in the study, embraced growing season duration, 1000 grains weight, plant height, and ear length. The results of the testing were further processed using statistical procedures of linear Pearson's correlation analysis and multiple regression analysis. As a result, the model of a winter wheat variety for the non-irrigated lands of the South of Ukraine was developed. The developed model is characterized by very high fitting quality (R 2 = 0.9476) and good prediction accuracy (MAPE = 23.27%). According to the model, the variety should be late ripening with moderate to high plant height to provide the highest grain yield. The trait of 1000 grains weight was found out to be unimportant. The main trait, providing for the grain yield increase, is growing season duration, which must be long enough. Further ecological varietal testing studies with inclusion of additional varietal traits, such as cold-resistance, drought-resistance, frostresistance, tolerance to diseases, etc., are to be conducted to extend the ideotype of winter wheat.