Choice of Beef Herd Adaptation Strategy on Canadian Prairie Mixed Farms Under Extreme Climate Events

Abstract

Economic impact of climate extremes on beef operation is expected to be significant due to its direct impact on feed production. Impact of such events on farm management and longer term farm financial situation is relatively unstudied in the Canadian Prairie. This study compared three alternative beef herd management strategies in dealing with climate extreme events under reference climate scenario of 1971-2000 and the future scenario of 2041-2070. The study used farm simulation model that integrated the model of cattle herd simulation, pasture model, crop simulation model combined with models of economic decisions. Purchasing feed and maintaining herd size is preferred option in dealing with drought. Changes in management such as early weaning combined with limit feeding strategies reduce the feed demand and also reduce the financial burden during the years of extreme event, but it has severe negative consequences on amount of slaughter cattle sold. Cull herd strategy not only reduces feed demand but also increases income from sell of herd during the year/s of extreme event, but it severely impacts the farm's long term output supply potential. However, expansion of existing agriculture risk management policy to cover climate risk in beef production is necessary to support farmers in the year/s to extreme events.