Aims Two types of heart failure (HF) progression were recently proposed on the basis of an increased vs. non-increased serum chloride concentration. The applicability of this concept to real-world HF pathophysiology requires further investigation. The present study evaluated the mechanisms of HF progression to a different type according to changes in the estimated plasma volume status (ePVS). Methods and results Data from 47 patients (32% men; 78.2 ± 9.7 years of age) with stable to worsening HF (37.5 ± 16 days) were analysed. Physical examination, standard blood tests, and b-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) measurements were conducted. The ePVS was calculated as follows: ePVS (dL/g) = [100 À haematocrit (%)]/[haemoglobin (g/dL)]. For the study subjects as a whole (n = 47), changes in the ePVS correlated positively with changes in the serum chloride concentration from stable to worsening HF (r = 0.398, P = 0.0056). When divided into two groups of worsening HF with an increased (n = 31) vs. non-increased serum chloride concentration (n = 16), no significant baseline differences in body weight, serum logBNP, or ePVS were detected between groups. Under worsening HF, the increase in body weight (2.34 ± 1.12 vs. 2.59 ± 1.56 kg, P = 0.57) and logBNP (0.39 ± 0.30 vs. 0.54 ± 0.31 pg/mL, P = 0.13) did not differ between groups, but the increase in the ePVS was smaller in the group with a non-increased serum chloride concentration compared with that with an increased serum chloride concentration (0.292 ± 0.49 vs. 0.653 ± 0.60 dL/g, P = 0.044). An increase in the %change in ePVS ≥ 10% was less common in patients with a non-increased chloride concentration (37% vs. 71%, P = 0.03). Patients with a non-increased serum chloride concentration had more HF signs (3.31 ± 0.79 vs. 2.65 ± 0.71, P = 0.005) and a higher incidence of pulmonary rales (63% vs. 16%, P = 0.0024) than those with an increased serum chloride concentration. Conclusions According to the changes in the ePVS, HF progression may result from a difference between two HF types (i.e. increased vs. non-increased serum chloride concentration) in the cardiac reserve in response to a given cardiac burden by modulating plasma volume status via the possible tonicity potential of chloride.