China's Strategy and Activities in the Arctic: Implications for North American and Transatlantic Security

Abstract

Although a non-Arctic state, China has become a significant player in the Arctic region, engaging in economic, scientific, cultural, diplomatic, and military activities in and around various Arctic countries. This report examines the potential implications of Chinese investments and activities in the Arctic for the regional rules-based order and for regional and transatlantic security. It evaluates China's strategy and diplomacy in the region, inventories existing activities in the North American Arctic (the United States, Canada, Greenland); and assesses the risks that these activities might pose in the Arctic in light of security, political, economic, social, and environmental issues from similar activities in other regions of the world. This research, which was conducted as a collaborative effort between the RAND Corporation and the Swedish Defence Research Agency (Totalförsvarets Forskningsinstitut, or FOI), should be of interest to policymakers, military planners, and analysts in the United States and other Arctic states seeking to better understand China's growing role in the Arctic and the risks that an increased Chinese influence might pose to the region's security and governance.The research reported here was completed in May 2022 and underwent security review with the sponsor before public release.This report was updated in December 2022 to correct several factual errors, including an incorrect assertion that a Chinese state-owned enterprise held a share of the Tanbreez project in Greenland. These changes did not affect the findings or recommendations presented in this report.