China’s Low-Carbon Scenario Analysis of CO2 Mitigation Measures towards 2050 Using a Hybrid AIM/CGE Model

Li, Wei; Li, Hao; Sun, Shuang

doi:10.3390/en8053529

Cited by 19 publications

(9 citation statements)

References 21 publications

(27 reference statements)

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“…Computable, or applied, general equilibrium models (CGE) are simulations that combine the concept of market equilibrium with economic data, to numerically solve for the levels of supply, demand, and prices that support equilibrium across a set of markets. The empirical basis of CGE models is the interregional social accounting matrix (SAM), which records the revenues and expenses of all agents in the economy, classified as businesses, factors of production, households, government and the rest of the world (or the country), and provides the input–output coefficients of an economy . In this study, two main data sources feed the CGE model with balanced input–output coefficients: the interregional SAM for the baseline year of 2009, which describes the current sectors of the economy, and economic modeling of the biobased processes.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…To satisfy the objectives proposed by the project, especially its interest in economy-wide changes in feedstock (from fossil to biobased), computable general equilibrium modeling (CGE) was chosen as the basic methodology, integrated with an economic input-output life cycle analysis (EIO-LCA). The use of CGE models and EIO-LCA's to analyze the energy-environment nexus has continuously grown and has many examples to offer, mainly focusing on carbon emissions, and carbon price, [9][10][11][12] emissions reductions and costs, 13,14 and, most important, land use and land-use change. For land-use change, an important publication dealing with deforestation and emissions 15 found that food output can increase without land supply expansion.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The potential of a bioeconomy to reduce Brazilian GHG emissions towards 2030: a CGE‐based life cycle analysis

Machado

Cunha

Faaij

et al. 2019

Biofuels Bioprod Bioref

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Brazil is one of the largest emitters of greenhouse gases in the world with most of its emissions coming from the land use, land use change, and forestry (LULUCF) sector. New commitments have been set by the Paris Agreement and are reflected in the country's Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC). The Brazilian NDC has three main pillars to reduce emissions: increasing the share of biomass in the total primary energy supply to 18%, reducing deforestation, and achieving 45% of renewable energy in the energy mix. It is important to enlarge the share of biomass in the Brazilian economy, but it is also important to assess the potential impacts on deforestation in order to set the right strategy eventually. This study is thus an effort to investigate the contributions of a biobased economy to reduce Brazilian emissions, considering the broader concept of the bioeconomy, using biomass for energy, chemicals, and materials. To satisfy the objectives of the project, especially those related to its interest in economy‐wide changes in feedstock (from fossil to biobased), computable general equilibrium modeling (CGE) was chosen as the basic methodology integrated with an economic input–output life cycle analysis (EIO‐LCA). Results show that the impacts of the bioeconomy scenarios are positive but not sufficiently high to reduce the estimated emissions drastically. Emissions by the energy sector produce the highest reductions (7.5%) but the 12% increase in the LULUCF sector offsets those reduction. © 2019 Society of Chemical Industry and John Wiley & Sons, Ltd

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The potential of a bioeconomy to reduce Brazilian GHG emissions towards 2030: a CGE‐based life cycle analysis

Machado

Cunha

Faaij

et al. 2019

Biofuels Bioprod Bioref

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

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“…However, carbon tax levied in China has not really been implemented, and the tax rate is still no basis to determine the level of carbon tax to be imposed. In this regard, referring to the international carbon tax precedent, Li et al [37] whose research introduces carbon tax into China, Meng and Pham [38] whose research introduces carbon tax into the tourism sector in Australia, and Meng [39] whose research focuses on the impact of carbon tax on electricity sector, this article sets up six different scenarios to impose a carbon tax on agriculture-related sectors. Among them, according to the international general experience, the carbon tax should be set gradually in accordance with the low to high, and it is not reasonable to set the carbon tax too high, otherwise the impact on the macroeconomy will be more significant.…”

Section: Scenarios Designmentioning

confidence: 99%

It is Worth Pondering Whether a Carbon Tax is Suitable for China’s Agricultural-Related Sectors

et al. 2018

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Studying the characteristics, trends, and evolution of carbon emissions in agricultural related sectors is of great significance for rational formulation of carbon emission reduction policies. However, as an important carbon emission reduction policy, carbon tax has been controversial over whether or not it should be levied on China. Based on this consideration, this paper takes China’s agricultural related sectors as an example and analyzes the degree of carbon tax on macro-environment, macroeconomy, and agricultural sectors during the period 2020–2050 by constructing a 3EAD-CGE (economy-energy-environmental-agricultural-dynamics Computable General Equilibrium) model. The results show that: (1) carbon tax has a time effect, specifically, the short-term effect is better than the long-term. (2) If the incremental rate of carbon tax is carried out alone, it will exert a great influence on the macroeconomy as well as on most of the agricultural related sectors. (3) If a carbon tax is introduced at the same time as indirect taxes are cut (proportionally), the policy will exert a negative impact on agriculture-related sectors that are subsidized. However, the policy will have a positive impact on those nonsubsidized sectors. Finally, based on the results, we put forward some suggestions that are more suitable for the introduction of a carbon tax in China’s agricultural-related sectors.

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“…The ETS modelling in the CGE model is usually handled by implementing an endogenous carbon tax or treating allowance as a special input factor [21][22][23][24][28][29][30][42][43][44][45][46]. Although the impacts of implementing an ETS or an endogenous carbon tax on economies are the same theoretically, emissions trading is a decision optimization process for each trader under the principle of cost minimization.…”

Section: Modelling Approach For Etsmentioning

confidence: 99%

How Can China Achieve Its Nationally Determined Contribution Targets Combining Emissions Trading Scheme and Renewable Energy Policies?

Fan

Xia

2017

Energies

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Abstract:The adoption of emissions trading scheme (ETS) and renewable energy sources (RES) policies have been essential to achieving China's national targets for reducing CO 2 emissions and developing non-fossil energy sources. The combination of ETS and RES policies raises an important issue: What is the effect of combining ETS and RES policies on the existing carbon market and economy? Focusing on the design of the nationwide carbon market, this paper uses a multi-regional computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to analyze the economic impacts of ETS policy when combined with RES policies in China. The results show that China's annual ETS emissions cap should decrease by 0.3% to maintain stable CO 2 prices and achieve the targets in China's intended nationally determined contribution (INDC). It is estimated that the CO 2 price on the nationwide carbon market would decrease by 11-64% when the renewable energy subsidy rate increases from 20 to 100%, and the total trading volume would decrease by 3-25%. The results also show that the combination of an ETS and a feed-in tariff (FIT) results in greater GDP cost and welfare loss in all Chinese regions, increasing the total social cost by 0.01-0.06%.

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China’s Low-Carbon Scenario Analysis of CO2 Mitigation Measures towards 2050 Using a Hybrid AIM/CGE Model

Cited by 19 publications

References 21 publications

The potential of a bioeconomy to reduce Brazilian GHG emissions towards 2030: a CGE‐based life cycle analysis

The potential of a bioeconomy to reduce Brazilian GHG emissions towards 2030: a CGE‐based life cycle analysis

It is Worth Pondering Whether a Carbon Tax is Suitable for China’s Agricultural-Related Sectors

How Can China Achieve Its Nationally Determined Contribution Targets Combining Emissions Trading Scheme and Renewable Energy Policies?

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